OBJECTIVE Our study investigates different models to forecast the total number of next-day discharges from an open ward having no real-time clinical data. METHODS We compared 5 popular regression algorithms to model total next-day discharges: (1) autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), (2) the autoregressive moving average with exogenous variables (ARMAX), (3) k-nearest neighbor reg...

In this paper, instead of the usual Gaussian noise assumption, t-distribution noise is assumed. AMaximum Likelihood Estimator using the most recent N measurements is proposed for the Auto-Regressive-Moving-Average with eXogenous input (ARMAX) process with this assumption. The proposed estimator is robust to outliers because the ‘thick tail’ of the t-distribution reduces the effect of large erro...

1. BASIC PROBABILITY THEORY 1.1 Measure-theoretical foundation of probability theory 1.2 Independence 1.3 Borel measurable functions 1.4 Mathematical expectatlon 1.5 Characteristic functions 1.6 Random functions 2. CONVERGENCE 2.1 Heak and strong convergence of random variables 2.2 Convergence of mathematical expectations 2.3 Convergence of distributions 2.4 Central limit theoreras 2.5 Further ...