It is well-known that naive Bayes performs surprisingly well in classification, but its probability estimation is poor. In many applications, however, a ranking based on class probabilities is desired. For example, a ranking of customers in terms of the likelihood that they buy one’s products is useful in direct marketing. What is the general performance of naive Bayes in ranking? In this paper...

When individuals have little knowledge about a causal system and must make causal inferences based on vague and imperfect information, their judgments often deviate from the normative prescription of classical probability. Previously, many researchers have dealt with violations of normative rules by elaborating causal Bayesian networks through the inclusion of hidden variables. While these mode...

‎consider an estimation problem in a one-parameter non-regular distribution when both endpoints of the support depend on a single parameter‎. ‎in this paper‎, ‎we give sufficient conditions for a generalized bayes estimator of a parametric function to be admissible‎. ‎some examples are given‎. ‎

the empirical bayes estimators of treatment effects in a factorial experiment were derived and their asymptotic properties were explored. it was shown that they were asymptotically optimal and the estimator of the scale parameter had a limiting gamma distribution while the estimators of the factor effects had a limiting multivariate normal distribution. a bootstrap analysis was performed to ill...

This paper proposes Bayesian methods for estimating the cointegration rank using Bayes factors. We consider natural conjugate priors for computing Bayes factors. First, we estimate the cointegrating vectors for each possible rank. Then, we compute the Bayes factors for each rank against 0 rank. Monte Carlo simulations show that using Bayes factor with conjugate priors produces fairly good resul...

Many databases store data in relational format, with different types of entities and information about links between the entities. The field of statistical-relational learning has developed a number of new statistical models for such data. Instead of introducing a new model class, we propose using a standard model class—Bayes nets—in a new way: Join Bayes nets contain nodes that correspond to t...

This paper proposes a scheme for activity recognition in sensor based smart homes using Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence. In this work, opinion owners and their belief masses are constructed from sensors and employed in a single-layered inference architecture. The belief masses are calculated using beta probability distribution function. The frames of opinion owners are derived automatically ...

This paper has two aims. First, we investigate how often people make choices conforming to Bayes' rule when natural sampling is applied. Second, we show that using Bayes' rule is not necessary to make choices satisfying Bayes' rule. Simpler methods, even fallacious heuristics, might prescribe correct choices reasonably often under specific circumstances. We considered elementary situations with...

This paper presents the prior PAC-Bayes bound and explores its capabilities as a tool to provide tight predictions of SVMs’ generalization. The computation of the bound involves estimating a prior of the distribution of classifiers from the available data, and then manipulating this prior in the usual PAC-Bayes generalization bound. We explore two alternatives: to learn the prior from a separat...

This paper analyzes the problem of learning the structure of a Bayes net (BN) in the theoretical framework of Gold’s learning paradigm. Bayes nets are one of the most prominent formalisms for knowledge representation and probabilistic and causal reasoning. We follow constraint-based approaches to learning Bayes net structure, where learning is based on observed conditional dependencies between ...