Understanding the forces that influence natural variation within and among populations has been a major objective of evolutionary biologists for decades. Motivated by the growth in computational power and data complexity, modern approaches to this question make intensive use of simulation methods. Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is one of these methods. Here we review the foundations of ...

Macroeconomists working with multivariate models typically face uncertainty over which (if any) of their variables have long run steady states which are subject to breaks. Furthermore, the nature of the break process is often unknown. In this paper, we draw on methods from the Bayesian clustering literature to develop an econometric methodology which: i) …nds groups of variables which have the ...

With game play data, empirical approaches to clustering are typically based solely on game outcomes, e.g. kills, deaths, and score for each player. In this paper, we investigate a method for clustering players based on how a player’s choices relate to outcomes, or equivalently the latent player styles exhibited by players. Our approach is based on a Bayesian semi-parametric clustering method wh...

We consider the problem of learning probabilistic models for complex relational structures between various types of objects. A model can help us “understand” a dataset of relational facts in at least two ways, by finding interpretable structure in the data, and by supporting predictions, or inferences about whether particular unobserved relations are likely to be true. Often there is a tradeoff...

Likelihood-based inference for disease outbreak data can be very challenging due to the inherent dependence of the data and the fact that they are usually incomplete. In this paper we review recent Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methods for the analysis of such data by fitting to them stochastic epidemic models without having to calculate the likelihood of the observed data. We consider...

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is rapidly gaining popularity in population genetics. One example, msBayes, infers the distribution of divergence times among pairs of taxa, allowing phylogeographers to test hypotheses about historical causes of diversification in co-distributed groups of organisms. Using msBayes, we infer the distribution of divergence times among 22 pairs of populations...

We introduce a Bayesian extension of the tensor factorization problem to multiple coupled tensors. For a single tensor it reduces to standard PARAFAC-type Bayesian factorization, and for two tensors it is the first Bayesian Tensor Canonical Correlation Analysis method. It can also be seen to solve a tensorial extension of the recent Group Factor Analysis problem. The method decomposes the set o...

Recent developments in the forensic sciences have confronted the field of legal reasoning with the new challenge of reasoning under uncertainty. Forensic results come with uncertainty and are described in terms of likelihood ratios and random match probabilities. The legal field is unfamiliar with numerical valuations of evidence, which has led to confusion and in some cases to serious miscarri...

This paper is an attempt to reconcile Bayesian and non-Bayesian approaches to statistical inference, by casting both in terms of a broader formalism. In particular, this paper is an attempt to show that when one extends conventional Bayesian analysis to distinguish the truth from one's guess for the truth, one gains a broader perspective which allows the inclusion of non-Bayesian formalisms. Th...

We consider the problems of image segmentation and classi cation and image restoration when the true image is made up of a small number of unordered colors Our emphasis is on both performance and speed speed has become increasingly important for analyzing large images and multispectral images with many bands processing large image databases real time or near real time image analysis and the onl...