This paper develops default priors for Bayesian analysis that reproduce familiar frequentist and Bayesian analyses for models that are exponential or location. For the vector parameter case there is an information adjustment that avoids the Bayesian marginalization paradoxes and properly targets the prior on the parameter of interest thus adjusting for any complicating nonlinearity the details ...

In this paper we propose a method to produce density forecasts of the term structure of government bond yields which takes into account (i) the possible mispeci…cation of an underlying Gaussian A¢ ne Term Structure Model (GATSM) and (ii) the time varying volatility of interest rates. In order to do so we derive a Bayesian prior from a GATSM and use it to estimate the coe¢ cients of a BVAR for t...

We propose a scalable Gaussian process model for regression by applying a deep neural network as the feature-mapping function. We first pre-train the deep neural network with a stacked denoising auto-encoder in an unsupervised way. Then, we perform a Bayesian linear regression on the top layer of the pre-trained deep network. The resulting model, Deep-Neural-Network-based Gaussian Process (DNN-...

We introduce a new Bayesian approach to the variable selection problem which we term Bayesian Shrinkage Variable Selection (BSVS ). This approach is inspired by the Relevance Vector Machine (RVM ), which uses a Bayesian hierarchical linear setup to do variable selection and model estimation. RVM is typically applied in the context of kernel regression although it is also suitable in the standar...