We propose a new method to compute prediction intervals. Especially for small data sets the width of a prediction interval does not only depend on the variance of the target distribution, but also on the accuracy of our estimator of the mean of the target, i.e., on the width of the confidence interval. The confidence interval follows from the variation in an ensemble of neural networks, each of...

notion the theoretical distribution on the random variable ) is not available. All we have ICOTS8 (2010) Invited Paper Engel International Association of Statistical Education (IASE) www.stat.auckland.ac.nz/~iase/ to rely on are the data at hand, i.e. the sample or recapture of size n. These data–if drawn by some random mechanism–may well be taken as a good representation of the total fish popu...

Fukuhara and Hori’s article [1] reported the possibility of calculating the incidence of spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (sICH) using publicly accessible data in Japan. If the method were valid and satisfied statistical assumptions, overcoming the limitation of the source of the data, known as Diagnosis Procedure Combination (DPC) data, this suggestion could be an innovative method. Becaus...

If you have just two discrete hypotheses, then a hypothesis test is simply an application of Bayes’ Theorem. You check to see whether your data can reasonably be explained by that boring old null hypothesis (conventionally called H0), or not. To test H0, you need to compare it to one other model. One never tests a hypothesis in isolation; it is tested against an alternative (typically called H1...

probabilities, it can be determined that combining the probability values of 0.11 and 0.07 results in a probability value of 0.045. Therefore, these two nonsignificant findings taken together result in a significant finding. Although there is never a statistical basis for concluding that an effect is exactly zero, a statistical analysis can demonstrate that an effect is most likely small. This ...

A calculator program has been written to give confidence intervals on branching ratios for rare decay modes (or similar quantities) calculated from the number of events observed, the acceptance factor, the background estimate and the associated errors. Results from different experiments (or different channels from the same experiment) can be combined. The calculator is available in http://www.s...

When public health practitioners use health statistics, sometimes they are interested in the actual number of health events, but more often they use the statistics to assess the true underlying risk of a health problem in the community. Observed health statistics, that is, those counts, rates or percentages that are computed or estimated from health surveys, vital statistics registries, or othe...

The authors propose a new method for constructing a confidence interval for the expectation θ of a Poisson random variable. The interval they obtain cannot be shortened without the infimum over θ of the coverage probability falling below 1 − α. In addition, the endpoints of the interval are strictly increasing functions of the observed variable. An easy-to-program algorithm is provided for comp...

In this short preliminary note I apply the methodology of gametheoretic probability to calculating non-asymptotic confidence intervals for the coefficient of a simple first order scalar autoregressive model. The most distinctive feature of the proposed procedure is that with high probability it produces confidence intervals that always cover the true parameter value when applied sequentially.