The objective of this paper is to show how ambiguity, and a decision maker (DM)’s response to it, can be modelled formally in the context of a general decision model. We introduce a relation derived from the DM’s preferences, called ‘‘unambiguous preference’’, and show that it can be represented by a set of probabilities. We provide such set with a simple differential characterization, and argu...

Purpose – The “fuzzy front end” of new product development (NPD) is characterized by considerable uncertainty and ambiguity, but detailed studies of ambiguity specifically related to NPD are missing. This paper aims to establish a classification of ambiguity in NPD processes. Design/methodology/approach – The authors’ research design is a holistic multiple-case-study design with the NPD project...

The NASA scatterometer (NSCAT) estimates the wind speed and direction of near-surface ocean wind. Several possible wind vectors (termed ambiguities) are estimated for each resolution element known as a wind vector cell (WVC). Typically, the speeds of the possible wind vectors are nearly the same, but the directions are very different. The correct wind must be distinguished in a step called ambi...

According to the well-known distinction attributed to Knight (1921), there are two kinds of uncertainty. The first, called “risk,” corresponds to situations in which all events relevant to decision making are associated with obvious probability assignments (which every decision maker agrees to). The second, called “(Knightian) uncertainty” or (following Ellsberg (1961)) “ambiguity,” corresponds...

Much is known about how people make decisions under varying levels of probability (risk). Less is known about the neural basis of decision-making when probabilities are uncertain because of missing information (ambiguity). In decision theory, ambiguity about probabilities should not affect choices. Using functional brain imaging, we show that the level of ambiguity in choices correlates positiv...

Understanding query ambiguity in web search remains an important open problem. In this paper we reexamine query ambiguity by analyzing the result clickthrough data. Previously proposed clickthrough-based metrics of query ambiguity tend to conflate informational and ambiguous queries. To distinguish between these query classes, we introduce novel metrics based on the entropy of the click distrib...

GPS ambiguity resolution is the process of solving the unknown cycle ambiguities of the carrier phase data as integers. It is the key to fast and high precision relative GPS positioning. Since unsuccessful ambiguity resolution, when passed unnoticed, will often lead to unacceptable errors in the positioning results, very high success rates are required for ambiguity resolution to be reliable. I...

In many contexts, automatic analyzers cannot fully disambiguate a sentence or an utterance reliably, but can produce ambiguous results containing the correct interpretation. It is useful to study vatious properties of these ambiguities in the view of subsequent total or partial interactive disambiguation. We have proposed a technique for labelling ambiguities in texts and in dialogue transcript...

Using a large sample of retail investors as well as experimental data we find that risk and ambiguity aversion are positively correlated. We show the common link is decision style: intuitive thinkers tolerate more risk and ambiguity than effortful reasoners. One interpretation is that intuitive thinking confers an advantage in risky or ambiguous situations. We present supporting lab and field e...