Counterfactual Analysis in Macroeconometrics: An Empirical Investigation into the Effects of Quantitative Easing This paper is concerned with ex ante and ex post counterfactual analyses in the case of macroeconometric applications where a single unit is observed before and after a given policy intervention. It distinguishes between cases where the policy change affects the model’s parameters an...

Policy gradient methods have been widely applied in reinforcement learning. For reasons of safety and cost, learning is often conducted using a simulator. However, learning in simulation does not traditionally utilise the opportunity to improve learning by adjusting certain environment variables – state features that are randomly determined by the environment in a physical setting but controlla...

Abstract Large swings in capital flows into and out of emerging markets can potentially lead to excessive volatility in asset prices and credit supply. In order to lessen the impact of capital flows on financial instability, a number of researchers and policy markers have recently proposed the use of capital controls. This paper considers the benefit of adding capital controls as a potential in...

Safe Minimum Standards (SMSs) have been advocated as a policy rule for environmental problems where uncertainty about risks and consequences are thought to be profound. This paper explores the rationale for such a policy within a dynamic framework and derives conditions for when SMS can be summarily dismissed as a policy choice and for when SMS can be defended as an optimal policy based on stan...

We consider a resource allocation problem, where a rational agent has to decide how to share a limited amount of resources among different companies that might be facing financial difficulties. The objective is to minimize the total long term cost incurred by the economy due to default events. Using the framework of multiarmed restless bandits and, assuming a two-state evolution of the default ...

A currency area can be a self-validating optimal policy regime, even when monetary unification does not foster real economic integration and intra-industry trade. In our model firms choose the degree of exchange rate pass-through onto export prices accounting for expected monetary policies, and monetary authorities choose optimal policy rules taking firms’ pass-through as given. We show that th...

Fiji’s central bank, the Reserve Bank of Fiji (RBF) since its inception in 1983, has been pursuing monetary policy with the mandated objectives of economic growth with price stability and an adequate level of exchange reserves. In 1988, as part of financial sector reforms, RBF discontinued the use of direct instruments and switched on to employment of indirect instruments for influencing intere...

This paper studies optimal patent policy in a dynamic setting with sequential innovation. Firms innovate by undertaking “research” activities to generate new ideas and by undertaking “developement” activities to commercialize these ideas. To provide firms with incentive to invest in R&D, the social planner grants a monopoly right (patent) to an innovator to exclude its opponent from producing t...

Policy gradient methods have been widely applied in reinforcement learning. For reasons of safety and cost, learning is often conducted using a simulator. However, learning in simulation does not traditionally utilise the opportunity to improve learning by adjusting certain environment variables – state features that are randomly determined by the environment in a physical setting but controlla...

policy making in health is largely thought to be driven by three ‘i's namely ideas, interests and institutions. recent years have seen a shift in approach with increasing reliance being placed on role of evidence for policy making. the present arti­cle ascertains the role of ideas and ideologies in shaping evidence which is used to aid in policy decisions. the article dis­cusses different theor...