Estimation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models using state space methods implies vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) representations of the observables. Following Lippi and Reichlin’s (1994) analysis of nonfundamentalness, this note highlights the potential dangers of non-uniqueness, both of estimates of deep parameters and of structural innovations. ∗Department of ...

This paper develops a new framework of level-k DSGE for monetary policy analysis. Incomplete markets are introduced to guarantee the eductive stability of the equilibrium. k=1.265 is identified using growth and inflation expectations from the Michigan Survey of Consumers, capturing the missing indirect channels and weakened direct channels in households’ forecast rules, as well as the wedge bet...

n recent years, there has been a significant evolution in the formulation and communication of monetary policy at a number of central banks around the world. Many of these banks now present their economic outlook and policy strategies to the public in a more formal way, a process accompanied by the introduction of modern analytical tools and advanced econometric methods in forecasting and polic...

I investigate how a model that assumes learning might interact with a rational expectations data generating process. Milani (2007b) asserts that if agents are learning and there is no conditional heteroscedasticity then an econometrician may be fooled into estimating ARCH/GARCH models. In addition, I evaluate the contribution of a new endogenous gain, which I have proposed in previous paper, ma...

In this paper, we present an alternative strategy for estimation of DSGE models when data is available at di¤erent time intervals. Our method is based on a data augmentation technique within Bayesian estimation of structural models and allows us to jointly use data at di¤erent frequencies. The bene…ts achieved via this methodology will be twofold, resolution of time aggregation bias and identi…...

The identification of reduced-form VAR model had been the subject of numerous debates in the literature. Different sets of identifying assumptions can lead to very different conclusions in the policy debate. This paper proposes a theoretical consistent identification strategy using restrictions implied by a DSGE model. Monte Carlo simulations suggest the proposed identification strategy is succ...

4 A method to estimate DSGE models using the raw data is proposed. The approach 5 links the observables to the model counterparts via a ‡exible speci…cation which does 6 not require the model-based component to be solely located at business cycle frequen7 cies, allows the non model-based component to take various time series patterns, and 8 permits model misspeci…cation. Applying standard data ...

* This paper grew out of the Panel Discussion of the workshop " SDGE Models and their use in monetary policy " , held at the European Central Bank, June 5-6, 2001. I would like to thank the participants of the TSM conference in Touluse for comments and suggestions.