This paper provides an empirical analysis of the trading behavior and the impact of new investors on the bubble surrounding the Baosteel call warrant, the first derivative traded in China after a nine-year suspension. First, we find that the new investors initiated the bubble. Second, echoing common wisdom, we empirically show that the continuous entries of new investors sustained the bubble. T...

Together with a sense of entering a New Economy, the US experienced in the second half of the 1990s an economic expansion, a stock market boom, a financing boom for new firms and productivity gains. In this paper, we propose an interpretation of these events within a general equilibrium model with financial frictions and decreasing returns to scale in production. We show that the mere prospect ...

In this paper we consider the dynamics of spot and futures prices in the presence of arbitrage. We propose a partially linear error correction model where the adjustment coefficient is allowed to depend non-linearly on the lagged price difference. We estimate our model using data on the DAX index and the DAX futures contract. We find that the adjustment is indeed nonlinear. The linear alternati...

Investment banks legally pursue supposedly price stabilizing activities in the aftermarket of IPOs. We model the offering procedure as a signaling game and analyze how the possibility of potentially profitable trading in the aftermarket influences pricing decisions by investment banks. When maximizing the sum of both the gross spread of the offer revenue and profits from aftermarket trading, in...

I present evidence of inefficient information processing in equity markets by documenting that negative information withheld by securities analysts is incorporated in stock prices with a significant delay. I estimate the extent of the withheld negative information based on the proportion of analysts who stop revising their annual earnings forecasts. This measure predicts negative earnings surpr...

This paper provides evidence that a firm’s stock price movements affect its customer demand. I develop a model in which customers learn about a firm’s product quality partially from its stock price. This learning induces feedback from the price to customer demand. Furthermore, the firm manager adjusts product launch decisions in anticipation of these demand shifts. Consistent with the model’s i...

We analyze the value of public information in a competitive endowment economy. We provide a global result that an early release of information about the future state of the economy is desired by all agents, or Pareto improving, if agents disagree about the prospect of the economy and asset markets are complete. We further prove that for certain levels of agents’ disagreement, all agents prefer ...

Inventory positions of two risk averse market makers are introduced into a Kyle (1985) type batch trading model and the effects are analyzed. An equilibrium is defined with participation constraint and incentive compatibility and it is characterized as γ-coalitional equilibrium. At the equilibrium the two market makers share the risk of clearing orders so that the aggregate pricing schedule bec...

This research aims to analyze and to compare the ability of different mathematical models, such as artificial neural networks (ANN) and ARCH and GARCH models, to forecast the daily exchange rates Euro/U.S. dollar (USD), identifying which, among all the models applied, produces more accurate forecasts. By empirically comparing the different mathematical models developed in this research, the tra...

The realized size and value premia reflect earnings-induced price surprises that do not fit the rational pricing story. In addition, they seem to have little to do with systematic risks. This is because the majority of value or small firms with persistently high systematic risks are not rewarded with a premium. The premium happens, as a price adjustment, only to the subset of migrating firms wh...