Since forecast failure is due to unanticipated large shifts in deterministic factors, ‘sensible’ agents should adopt ‘robust forecasting rules’. Unless the model coincides with the generating mechanism, one cannot even prove that causal variables will dominate non-causal in forecasting. In such a non-stationary world, ‘rational expectations’ do not have an epistemologically-sound basis: agents ...

I examine the response of husbands' and wives' earnings to a tax reform in which husbands' and wives' tax rates changed independently, allowing me to examine the effect of both spouses' incentives on each spouse's behavior. I analyze the large Swedish tax reform of 1990–1991 and find that in response to a compensated fall in one spouse's tax rate, each spouse's earnings rise. I compare these re...

The CLASS model is a top‐down capital stress testing framework that projects the effect of different macroeconomic scenarios on U.S. banking firms. The model is based on simple econometric models estimated using public data and also on assumptions about loan loss provisioning, taxes, asset growth, and other factors. We use this framework to calculate a projected industry capital gap relative to...

This paper develops new directions on how individuals’ use of multiple goals can be incorporated in econometric models of individual decision-making. We start by outlining key components of multiple, simultaneous goal pursuit and multi-stage choice. Since different goals are often only partially compatible, such a multiple goal-based approach implies balancing goals, leading to a deliberate goa...

The article analysis the old credit risk evaluation models performance and highlights the failure of complex econometric models to predict recession. Furthermore, this article is intended to propose a software solution for implementing a general, orientative consumption credit risk evaluation scoring model based on semantic web. The use of semantic web enables us to discover the common features...

Do Downward Private Transfers Enhance Maternal Labor Supply? Evidence from around Europe Drawing on a theoretical model of downward private transfers with endogenous labor supply and recursive econometric models based on 2317 mother-daughter pairs from the 2003 SHARE data on 10 European countries, we investigate the impact of private transfers on the career choices of transfer-receiving young m...

Organizational boards of directors are one of the most important subgroups within most modern organizations, performing critical advisory, monitoring and resource dependence roles. This paper investigates the crucial question of whether the stock market values ethnic and gender diversity within organizational boards. We find that board diversity is positively associated with market valuation. W...

Empirical studies of various K-12 performance measures speak to the potential for improving the performance of the present system. They can address the following question. Given the fixed factors – the basic funding and governance processes that all fifty states share – what are the plausible maximum predicted values of the academic performance measures? For each of several econometric models, ...

Previous studies of the connection between school enrollment size and student achievement use cross-sectional econometric models and thus do not account for unobserved heterogeneity across schools. To address this concern, I utilize school-level panel data, and generate first-differences estimates of the effect of school size on achievement. Moreover, to account for the possibility that trends ...

This study investigates the effect of cell phones on economic development and growth by performing an econometric analysis using data from the International Telecommunications Union and the Penn World Table. It discusses the various ways cell phones can make markets more efficient and how the diffusion of information and knowledge plays into development. Several approaches (OLS, Fixed Effects, ...