Climate variability leads to economic and food security risks throughout the world because of its major influences on agriculture. Accurate forecasts of climate 3–6 months ahead of time can potentially allow farmers and others in agriculture to make decisions to reduce unwanted impacts or take advantage of expected favorable climate. However, potential benefits of climate forecasts vary conside...

Economic forecasts are an important instrument to judge the nation-wide economic situation. Such mainly based on data from statistical offices. However, there is a time lag between end of reporting period and release that arises for instance needed collect process data. To improve by reducing delay, it interest find alternative sources provide information activity without significant delays. Am...

Binary events are involved in many economic decision problems. In recent years, considerable progress has been made in diverse disciplines in developing models for forecasting binary outcomes. We distinguish between two types of forecasts for binary events that are generally obtained as the output of regression models: probability forecasts and point forecasts. We summarize specification, estim...

The WMO (World Meteorological Organization) weather research programme, THORPEX (The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment), ‘responds to the challenges associated with accelerating improvements in the skill of highimpact weather forecasts that (firstly) reduce and mitigate weather disasters and (secondly) increase the benefits provided by improved forecasts...(because) the te...

Forecasts from various experts are often used in macroeconomic forecasting models. Usually the focus is on the mean or median of the survey data. In the present study we adopt a different perspective on the survey data as we examine the predictive power of disagreement amongst forecasters. The premise is that this variable could signal upcoming structural or temporal changes in an economic proc...

This paper argues that probability forecasts convey information on the uncertainties that surround macro-economic forecasts in a straightforward manner which is preferable to other alternatives, including the use of confidence intervals. Probability forecasts obtained using a small benchmark macroeconometric model as well as a number of other alternatives are presented and evaluated using recur...