The future construction of utility-scale solar power plants in Australia will present challenges to integrate these plants into the existing electricity industry. This paper considers the likely solar forecasting requirements to facilitate the integration of photovoltaic and concentrating solar thermal plants into the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM). Many market participants may be...

Central Banks regularly make forecasts, such as the Fed’s Greenbook forecast, that are conditioned on hypothetical paths for the policy interest rate. While there are good public policy reasons to evaluate the quality of such forecasts, up until now, the most common approach has been to ignore their conditional nature and apply standard forecast e¢ ciency tests. In this paper we derive tests fo...

Numerical weather prediction models as well as the atmosphere itself can be viewed as nonlinear dynamical systems in which the evolution depends sensitively on the initial conditions. The fact that estimates of the current state are inaccurate and that numerical models have inadequacies, leads to forecast errors that grow with increasing forecast lead time. The growth of errors depends on the f...

Global climate--like local weather--is ever changing, on all time scales, in response to natural variations. For this reason, projections of global warming, resulting from increasing levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases, need to be set in the context of what has happened in the past. A knowledge of what has changed, and when and where, provides insights into why past changes have occurred. Su...

Background and aims: Since accurate forecasts help inform decisions for preventive health-careintervention and epidemic control, this goal can only be achieved by making use of appropriatetechniques and methodologies. As much as forecast precision is important, methods and modelselection procedures are critical to forecast precision. This study aimed at providing an overview o...

Our ongoing work focuses on systems for and applications of operational mesoscale numerical weather prediction. In particular, our goal is to provide weather forecasts at a level of precision and fast enough to address specific weather-sensitive operations. Hence, we are addressing problems of high-performance computing , visualization, and automation while designing, evaluating and optimizing ...

This research is the first step towards developing a system for translating Croatian weather forecasts into multiple languages. This step deals with the Croatian-English language pair. The parallel corpus consists of a one-year sample of the weather forecasts for the Adriatic, consisting of 7,893 sentence pairs. Evaluation is performed by the automatic evaluation measures BLUE, NIST and METEOR,...

BACKGROUND The internet has become a powerful tool to disseminate health information and there are millions of people accessing this free information for a second medical opinion. Consumers seeking information from this resource are more responsible for their own health. However, the quality of health information on the internet varies and there is no simple instrument that can effectively eval...

Forecasts guide decisions in all areas of economics and finance and their value can only be understood in relation to, and in the context of, such decisions. We discuss the central role of the loss function in helping determine the forecaster’s objectives. Decision theory provides a framework for both the construction and evaluation of forecasts. This framework allows an understanding of the ch...

We propose two simple evaluation methods for time varying density forecasts of continuous higher dimensional random variables. Both methods are based on the probability integral transformation for unidimensional forecasts. The first method tests multinormal densities and relies on the rotation of the coordinate system. The advantage of the second method is not only its applicability to any cont...