In the paper a relatively simple yet powerful and versatile technique for forecasting time series data – simple exponential smoothing is described. The simple exponential smoothing (SES) is a short-range forecasting method that assumes a reasonably stable mean in the data with no trend (consistent growth or decline). It is one of the most popular forecasting methods that uses weighted moving av...

Recursive time series methods are very popular due to their numerical simplicity. Their theoretical background is usually based on Kalman filtering in state space models (mostly in dynamic linear systems). However, in time series practice one must face frequently to outlying values (outliers), which require applying special methods of robust statistics. In the paper a simple robustification of ...

Commodity prices forecasting is one of the business functions to estimate future demand based on past data trend. This study aims implement a trial and error technique constant (alpha α) value in exponential smoothing method. Dealing with confusion that often researchers find selecting an alpha (α) among families, which suits characteristics investigated case. As selection precisely contributes...

Sales forecasting is a starting point of supply chain management, and its accuracy influences business management significantly. In industries, how to improve forecasting accuracy such as sales, shipping is an important issue. In this paper, a hybrid method is introduced and plural methods are compared. Focusing that the equation of exponential smoothing method (ESM) is equivalent to (1,1) orde...

In this paper, we study the influence of seasonal demands and forecasts on performance an Automatic Pipeline, Variable Inventory, Order-Based, Production Control System (APVIOBPCS) using linear control theory. particular, consider a system that uses forecast based no-trend, additive-seasonality exponential-smoothing model, compare its to equivalent simple exponential smoothing. We find with for...

Demands of customers for products and of the production for parts are being forecasted quite often in companies. The results are used extensively within the operational production planning and control by IT Systems like the SAP system. Hereby preferably methods based on exponential smoothing are being applied. Especially, in industrial practice it is expected that the pattern of the data change...

This research aims to find the most significant selling potential of hydroponic plants. study compared three types plants: kale, spinach and Pak Choy. The sales plants were using several methods, namely Naive, Moving Average, Single Exponential Smoothing, Decomposition Additive. Water Choy got highest forecast decomposition-additive forecasting method, while used single exponential smoothing. p...

In industries, how to improve forecasting accuracy such as sales, shipping is an important issue. There are many researches made on this. In this paper, a hybrid method is introduced and plural methods are compared. Focusing that the equation of exponential smoothing method(ESM) is equivalent to (1,1) order ARMA model equation, new method of estimation of smoothing constant in exponential smoot...