As a result of rapid urban economic development and improvement in living standards, urban residential electricity consumption in China is increasing quickly. Although the factors which influence the urban residential load are complex, an objective analysis followed by the setting up of a logical urban residential load forecast model can offer a scientific basis for decisions regarding urban po...

Four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVAR) in the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) is used to produce a best-estimate analysis of ocean circulation in the New York Bight during spring 2006 by assimilating observations collected by a variety of instruments during an intensive field program. An incremental approach is applied in an overlapped cycling system with 3-day data assimi...

Recent advances in mathematical modeling and inference methodologies have enabled development of systems capable of forecasting seasonal influenza epidemics in temperate regions in real-time. However, in subtropical and tropical regions, influenza epidemics can occur throughout the year, making routine forecast of influenza more challenging. Here we develop and report forecast systems that are ...

We present a forecast-based adaptive management framework for water supply reservoirs and evaluate the contribution of long-term inflow forecasts to reservoir operations. Our framework is developed for snow-dominated river basins that demonstrate large gaps in forecast skill between seasonal and inter-annual time horizons. We quantify and bound the contribution of seasonal and inter-annual fore...

Statistical analysis methods are generally derived under the assumption that forecast errors are strictly random and zero in the mean If the short term forecast used as the background eld in the statistical analysis equation is in fact biased so will the resulting analysis be biased The only way to properly account for bias in a statistical analysis is to do so explicitly by estimating the fore...

Short-term (1–10 day) forecasts are made with climate models to assess the parameterizations of the physical processes. The time period for the integrations is that of the intensive observing period (IOP) of the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA COARE). The models used are the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Mod...