This paper considers a class of Heath-Jarrow-Morton (1992) term structure models, characterized by time deterministic volatilities for the instantaneous forward rate. The bias that arises from using observed futures yields as a proxy for the unobserved instantaneous forward rate is analyzed. The fact that futures contracts can be viewed as derivative instruments on the forward rate is used to d...

Organized trading for electricity includes both the pool and the futures market. Pool prices are volatile while the prices of the futures-market products are comparatively more stable. Thus, futures-market products constitute hedging instruments to reduce the risk suffered by any market agent. Electricity market agents engage in both pool and futures market transactions seeking to maximize thei...

The agricultural goods futures market has recently regained the interest of corporate business, research institutions, and governments. This renewed interest is brought about by the increasing volatility of the prices of agricultural raw materials. In turn, these reflect the shift that has taken place in the European Union’s joint agricultural policy: from price support to income support and to...

Our results find that futures contracts with different maturities for emissions allowances exhibit a significant cointegration relationship by using two-step EG model, similar market information has a convergent effect on prices spreads of futures contracts with different maturities. Convenience yields implied from the futures markets exhibit a significant options property. Convenience yields a...

The project "Energy and Society," sponsored by the Swedish Secretariat for Futures Studies, has studied different indigenous energy sources as alternatives to imported oil in Sweden. One alternative is nuclear energy, antoer is renewable energy. Large uncertainties are associated with both alternatives today. The main characteristics of an energy policy for the rest of the century that does not...

The Context Scenario Planning is fast becoming one of the most popul(lr and persuasive tcchniques, used in strategic plan ni ng and foresighting cxercises of aU kinds in both public and private sectors, It is likely that the approach will playa more prominent role in helping organisations and agencies from all parts of the economy, governance and society in Ireland think, talk, act and plan d i...

This study presents an application of stochastic model for limit order book (LOB) dynamics to Korean Stock Index Futures (KOSPI 200 Futures). Since KOSPI 200 futures market is widely known as one of the most liquid markets in the world, direct application of an existing model is hardly possible. Therefore, we modified an existing model to successfully model and predict the dynamics of extremely...

This paper is a study of continuously resettled contingent claims prices in a stochastic economy. As special cases, the relationship between futures and forward prices is analyzed, and a preference-free expression is derived for these prices, as well as the price of a continuously resettled futures option, whose formula differs from Black’s futures option pricing formula due to the effects of m...

The futures market in West Texas Intermediate crude oil was introduced in 1983 with a posted-price cash market in which the posted price changed a few times a year. By 2002, the cash price changed almost daily. Evidence from producers’ invoices shows that this initially low frequency of price changes reflects transactions prices. Using experiments, we show that the introduction of a futures mar...