A substantial body of research on affective forecasting has found that people often overestimate the affective impact of future events. Levine, Lench, Kaplan, and Safer (2012) argued that whereas people may overestimate the duration of their emotional responses, they do not overestimate the initial intensity of these responses as much as previous research has suggested. We suggest that Levine e...

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We investigate the issue of model uncertainty in cross-country growth regressions using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). We find that the posterior probability is very spread among many models suggesting the superiority of BMA over choosing any single model. Out-of-sample predictive results support this claim. In contrast with Levine and Renelt (1992), our results broadly support the more “optim...

This paper develops a dual-self model that is compatible with modern dynamic macroeconomic theory and evidence, and shows how it leads to a wide range of behavioral anomalies concerning risk, including the Allais paradox. We calibrate the model to obtain a quantitative fit, by extending the simpler “nightclub” model of Fudenberg and Levine [2006] by introducing consumption commitment. We find t...