Beta is found to be a function of several leading economic indicators and government policy variables within the context of the Variable Beta Model which incorporates economic characteristics in the single index model in a multiplicative manner. When contemporaneous macroeconomic descriptors are replaced with reporting-period-lagged macroeconomic descriptors, in the Lagged Variable Beta Model, ...

This study applies an approximate dynamic factor model to forecast three macroeconomic variables of Taiwan – inflation based on consumer price index, unemployment rate, and industrial production growth rate. Our data contain 95 macroeconomic variables of Taiwan and 89 international time series during 1981Q1-2006Q4. We perform out-of-sample forecasting from a rolling-window estimation scheme and...

Survival analysis can be applied to build models for time of default on debt. In this paper we report an application of survival analysis to model default on a large data set of credit card accounts. We show that survival analysis is competitive for prediction of default in comparison with logistic regression. We explore the hypothesis that probability of default is affected by general conditio...

The aim of this study is to analyze the causality relationship among a set of macroeconomic variables, represented by the exchange rate, interest rate, inflation (CPI), industrial production index as a proxy for gross domestic product in relation to the index of the São Paulo Stock Exchange (Bovespa). The period of analysis corresponded to the months from January 1995 to December 2010, making a...

This article concerns the dimension reduction in regression for large dataset. We introduce a new method based on the sliced inverse regression approach, called cluster-based regularized sliced inverse regression. Our method not only keeps the merit of considering both response and predictors information, but also enhances the capability of handling highly correlated variables. It is justified ...