In a universe with a single currency, there would be no foreign exchange market, no foreign exchange rates, and no foreign exchange. Over the past twenty-five years, the way the market has performed those tasks has changed enormously. The need for intelligent monitoring systems has become a necessity to keep track of the complex forex market. The vast currency market is a foreign concept to the...

Empirical tests are performed to examine whether foreign exchange excess returns for the British pound, Canadian dollar, Deutsche mark, and Japanese yen are related to volatility in the currency market and volatility in the stock markets. Our results indicate that volatility (measured by standard deviation and variance) from currency markets is signi® cant in explaining the excess returns, sugg...

To simultaneously account for the properties of interest-rate term structure and foreign exchange rates within one arbitrage-free framework, we propose a class of multicurrency quadratic models (MCQM) with an (m+ n) factor structure in the pricing kernel of each economy. The m factors model the term structure of interest rates. The n factors capture the portion of the exchange rate movement tha...

Abstract We present a model that accounts for the “mystery of original sin” and surge in local-currency borrowing by emerging economies recent decade. quantitatively investigate currency composition sovereign debt presence two types limited enforcement frictions arising from government's monetary policy: strategic debasement default on debt. Local-currency obligations act as better consumption ...

This paper explains exchange rate dynamics by linking …nancial customers’foreign exchange order ‡ow with their dynamic portfolio reallocation. For any currency pair in a particular period, one currency has higher assets return than the other and can be considered the high-return-currency (HRC). Financial institutions attempt to hold more HRC assets when they become more risk-loving or the relat...

This paper shows that countries can use foreign reserves to enhance their domestic economies’ resilience to potential risks from balance sheet effects. Based on a theoretical model, this paper demonstrates that the government can either deploy its foreign reserves to lend in foreign currency to the private sector or increase fiscal spending on domestic goods. Both these policy tools can remedy ...

The martingale hypothesis for daily and weekly rates of change of futures prices for five currencies is tested in this paper. With daily data, we find some evidence against the null hypothesis for each currency. Although institutionally imposed limits on daily price changes were binding fairly often in the earlier years of the sample, the results are not substantially different when data affect...

This paper examines the issues related to the competition between two currencies in an agent-based computational economic model. The economic environment is a two-country overlapping generations economy with no restrictions on foreign currency holdings. Governments of both countries nance their de cits via seignorage. Agents make decisions about their savings and portfolio decisions. They use t...

Currency crises that coincide with banking crises tend to share at least three elements. First, banks have a currency mismatch between their assets and liabilities. Second, banks do not completely hedge the associated exchange rate risk. Third, there are implicit government guarantees to banks and their foreign creditors. This paper argues that the "rst two features arise from banks' optimal re...