Competitive elections are frequently decided by which side can generate larger turnout on polling day. When decided on whether to turnout voters are assumed to balance the cost of going to the polls with the prospect of making a difference in the election outcome. We present a stochastic model of turnout where voters receive information about current turnout propensities of the voting populus t...

This paper presents a new interactive opinion mining tool that helps users to classify large sets of short texts originated from Web opinion polls, technical forums or Twitter. From a manual multilabel pre-classification of a very limited text subset, a learning algorithm predicts the labels of the remaining texts of the corpus and the texts most likely associated to a selected label. Using a f...

We consider a kinetic model describing some mechanisms of opinion formation in the framework of referendums, by allowing that the individuals, who can interact between themselves and modify their opinion by means of spontaneous self-thinking, are moreover under the influence of mass media. After proving the main properties of the model, such as existence of solutions and conservation properties...

Public trust in policy makers, industry officials and opinion shapers is declining in Western societies, a trend highlighted by opinion polls, surveys and research [1–4,101], which leads to political crisis, substantial economic losses and the introduction of controversial riskregulation practices, such as the precautionary principle [5–8]. Is the post-Vioxx pharmaceutical model of risk regulat...

A simple model of political popularity, as recorded by opinion polls of voting intentions, is proposed. We show that, as a consequence of aggregating heterogeneous poll responses under certain assumptions about the evolution of individual opinion, the time series of poll data should exhibit long memory characteristics. In an analysis of the monthly Gallup data on party support in the UK, we con...