We study the role of inventories in explaining the decline in U.S. output volatility observed in recent years. Our analysis is motivated by two striking features in the data. First, as is commonly noted, output growth was more volatile than sales growth before 1984 but in recent years they have both become less volatile and about equally as volatile as each other. Second, the forecasting role o...

Analyzing account-level data from an account aggregator, we find that households increase consumption when they receive expected tax refunds, as if face liquidity constraints. However, these same smooth making payments in other years, primarily by transferring funds among liquid accounts. Even carrying credit card debt payments, and even highly spend out of refunds. This behavior is inconsisten...

Assembly lines are special kinds of production systems which are of great importance in the industrial production of high quantity commodities. In many practical manufacturing systems, configuration of assembly lines is fixed and designing a new line may be incurred huge amount of costs and thereby it is not desirable for practitioners. When some changes related to market demand occur, it is wo...

Bayesian text classifiers face a common issue which is referred to as data sparsity problem, especially when the size of training data is very small. The frequently used Laplacian smoothing and corpus-based background smoothing are not effective in handling it. Instead, we propose a novel semantic smoothing method to address the sparse problem. Our method extracts explicit topic signatures (e.g...

Strategies involving smoothing of the objective function have been used to help solve difficult global optimization problems arising in molecular chemistry. This paper proposes a new smoothing approach and examines some basic issues in smoothing for molecular configuration problems. We first propose a new, simple algebraic way of smoothing the Lennard-Jones energy function, which is an importan...

The prediction of nodal electricity price (NEP) is a primary step to be done before the bidding process starts in actual market environment. NEP plays significant role for efficient working electrical system. follows common trend as during peak hours when load high will also similarly off-peak-load times lower and all node. Thus, accurate forecasting can help generation companies more proactive...