Assessment of predictive accuracy is a critical aspect of evaluating and comparing models, algorithms or technologies that produce the predictions. In the field of medical diagnosis, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves have become the standard tool for this purpose and its use is becoming increasingly common in other fields such as finance, atmospheric science and machine learning. T...

UNLABELLED : Lu and Elston have recently proposed a procedure for developing optimal receiver operating characteristic curves that maximize the area under a receiver operating characteristic curve in the setting of a predictive genetic test. The method requires only summary data, not individual level genetic data. In an era of increased data sharing, we investigate the performance of this algor...

Background: Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is one of the most common metabolic disorders in pregnancy, which is associated with serious complications. In the event of early diagnosis of this disease, some of the maternal and fetal complications can be prevented. The aim of this study was to early predict gestational diabetes mellitus by two statistical models including artificial neural ne...

From the operational perspective, on large fingerprint data sets, a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is usually measured by the true accept rate (TAR) of the genuine scores given a specified false accept rate (FAR) of the impostor scores. The ties of genuine and/or impostor scores at a threshold can often occur on large fingerprint data sets, and how to determine the TAR at an oper...

Recently, the argument has been made that receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis should be used to compare the diagnostic performance of different lineup procedures. However, a drawback to ROC analysis is that is requires multiple correct and false ID rates for each lineup procedure being compared. When only a single pair of correct and false ID rates is measured, what dependent measu...

We reassess the predictability of U.S. recessions at horizons from three months to two years ahead for a large number of previously proposed leading-indicator variables. We employ an efficient probit estimator for partially missing data and assess relative model performance based on the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. While the Treasury term spread has the highest predictive powe...

Category Theory is used to describe a category of fusors. The category is formed from a model of a process begining with an event and leading to the final labeling of the event. Although many techniques of fusing information have been developed the inherent relationships among different types of fusion techniques (fusors) have not yet been fully explored. In this paper, a foundation of fusion i...

PURPOSE. To assess the suitability of corneal anterior and posterior surface aberrations and thickness profile data for discrimination between eyes with early keratoconus (KC), fellow eyes of eyes with early KC, and normal eyes. METHODS. Thirty-two eyes (group 1) of 25 patients were newly diagnosed with KC; 17 eyes of 17 patients (group 2) were asymptomatic fellow eyes without clinical signs of...

A novel method is described for obtaining superior classiication performance over a variable range of classiication costs. By analysis of a set of existing classiiers using a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, a set of new realisable classiiers may be obtained by a principled random combination of two of the existing classiiers. These classiiers lie on the convex hull that contains ...

In recent years hazard models, using both market and accounting information, have become state of the art in predicting firm bankruptcies. However, a comprehensive test comparing their performance against the traditional accounting-based approach or the contingent claims approach is missing in the literature. Using a complete database of UK Main listed firms between 1979 and 2009, our Receiver ...