In recent years Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA), used as a powerful technique in time series analysis, has been developed and applied to many practical problems. In this paper, we introduce the SSA technique based on the minimum variance estimator. We also consider the SSA technique based on the minimum variance and structured total least squares estimators in reconstructing and forecasting ti...

• Traditional approaches, including Box–Jenkins autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, autoregressive and moving average with exogenous variables (ARMAX) model, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, exponential smoothing models [including Holt–Winters model (HW) and seasonal Holt and Winters’ linear exponential smoothing (SHW)], state space/Kalman fi...

During the past decades, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) had become one of a prevalent linear models in time series and forecasting. Empirical research advocated that forecasting with non-linear can be an encouraging alternative to traditional models. Linear are often compared mixed conclusions terms superiority performance. Therefore, aim this study is build early wa...

The COVID-19 pandemic is a serious threat to all of us. It has caused an unprecedented shock the world’s economy, and it interrupted lives livelihood millions people. In last two years, large body literature attempted forecast main dimensions outbreak using wide set models. this paper, I short- mid-term cumulative deaths from in 12 hard-hit big countries around world as 20 August 2021. data use...

The need for inflow discharge forecasts is the first step in process of integrating water management. To overcome this problem, a forecasting analysis system needed. This paper adopts seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model, SARIMA. method was chosen and then applied to data Wonorejo Reservoir obtain best model. Determination model through performance measures using minimum Mean...

As Companhias aéreas no Brasil têm grande desafio administrativo para se manterem de forma competitiva mercado. No ano 2020 a pandemia causada pelo vírus SARS-COV-2 impactou o setor e gerou uma crise econômica que acentuou diante da medida sanitária distanciamento social. O objetivo do estudo é realizar previsões das séries passageiros carga paga correio transportadas pela aviação civil brasile...

The study examined the impact of in-situ climatic and marine environmental variability on cholera incidence in an endemic area of Bangladesh and developed a forecasting model for understanding the magnitude of incidence. Diarrhoea surveillance data collected between 1988 and 2001 were obtained from a field research site in Matlab, Bangladesh. Cholera cases were defined as Vibrio cholerae O1 iso...

Increased incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) has been recognized as a critical challenge to communicable disease control and public health response. This study aimed to quantify the association between climate variation and notified cases of HFMD in selected cities of Shanxi Province, and to provide evidence for disease control and prevention. Meteorological variables and HFMD cas...