Though traditional DSS provide strong data management, modelling and visualisation capabilities for the decision maker, they do not explicitly support scenario management appropriately. Systems that purport to support scenario planning are complex and difficult to use and do not fully support all phases of scenario management. This research presents a life cycle approach for scenario management...

This paper studies the risks and uncertainties surrounding global food supply chains and finds that “scenario planning” which is a popular tool used in other sectors for risk identification, is less widely used to indentify risks within global food supply chains. Presented in this paper is a review of available literature and a discussion with regards to the feasibility of using scenario planni...

Innovation within the highly fragmented construction industry operating within an uncertain environment requires further development for the traditional planning techniques. Uncertainty that cannot be resolved cannot affect the consequence of the decision analysis to implement innovations. However, improved performance gained from adopting more innovative approaches requires commitment, uncerta...

The simulation of land combat operations is a complex task. The space of possibilities is exponential and the performance criteria are usually in conflict; thus finding a sweet spot in this complex search space is a hard task. This paper focuses on the effect of population size and mutation rate on the performance of NSGA–II, as the evolutionary multiobjective optimization technique, to decide ...

3 INTRODUCTION In this paper we describe the fourth-stage of our six-step scenario-based approach to strategic planning, the scenario building. Having completed the trend and uncertainty analysis using the 'Impact/Uncertainty Grid' tool in stage three, we will present in this paper how plausible scenarios can be created based on the identified key uncertainties using the 'Scenario Matrix' tool ...

Simulation of evacuation plans is a relatively complex problem. It is necessary to simulate a number of separate processes which interact in the result. Namely, they are pedestrian-pedestrian interactions, pedestrian-static object (e.g. wall) interactions and pedestrian-environment (fire, smoke, etc.) interactions. In this case, the evacuation simulation is controled on the microscopic level. M...

BACKGROUND Instead of waiting for challenges to confront hospital management, doctors and managers should act in advance to optimize and sustain value-based health. This work highlights the importance of scenario planning in hospitals, proposes an elaborated definition of the stakeholders of a hospital and defines the influence factors to which hospitals are exposed to. METHODOLOGY Based on l...

Article history: Received 14 April 2015 Received in revised form 26 May 2016 Accepted 22 July 2016 Available online 11 August 2016 Based on Habermas' Theory of Communicative Action, this paper critiques the transparency and legitimacy of participatory scenario planning, considering a case study of scenario development for the livestock industry within Scotland. The paper considers the extent to...