The species composition of plankton, insect and annual plant communities may vary markedly from year to year. Such interannual variability is usually thought to be driven by year-to-year variation in weather conditions. Here we examine an alternative explanation. We studied the effects of regular seasonal forcing on a multi-species predator-prey model consisting of phytoplankton and zooplankton...

The interplay of seasonality, the system's nonlinearities and intrinsic stochasticity, is studied for a seasonally forced susceptible-exposed-infective-recovered stochastic model. The model is explored in the parameter region that corresponds to childhood infectious diseases such as measles. The power spectrum of the stochastic fluctuations around the attractors of the deterministic system that...

This paper introduces a new representation for seasonally cointegrated variables, namely the complex error correction model, which allows statistical inference to be performed by reduced rank regression. The suggested estimators and tests statistics are asymptotically equivalent to their maximum likelihood counterparts. Tables are provided for both asymptotic and finite sample critical values, ...

—Nest placement of open-nesting bird species may affect risk of nest predation, nest microclimate, and reproductive success. In populations that breed in multiple habitat types and over long seasons, nest placement should vary seasonally and by habitat to compensate for seasonally changing and habitat specific environmental conditions that might affect the relationship between nest placement an...

Plankton seasonal succession is a classic example of nonequilibrium community dynamics. Despite the fact that it has been well studied empirically, it lacks a general quantitative theory. Here we investigate a food web model that includes a resource, two phytoplankton, and a shared grazer-the diamond food web-in a seasonal environment. The model produces a number of successional trajectories th...

The estimation of parameters in the frequency spectrum of a seasonally persistent stationary stochastic process is addressed. For seasonal persistence associated with a pole in the spectrum located away from frequency zero, a new Whittle-type likelihood is developed that explicitly acknowledges the location of the pole. This Whittle likelihood is a large sample approximation to the distribution...

Infectious diseases affect millions of people every year. In fact, more than 17 million deaths worldwide each year are attributed to infectious diseases [6]. An endemic disease is a disease which persists over time in a given population or geographic region [4]. For example, prior to the development of the measles vaccine in the 1960’s and eradication of measles from the United States in 2000, ...

A model of two species consuming a single, limited, periodically added resource is discussed. The model is based on chemostat-type equations, which differ from the classical models of Lotka and Volterra. The model incorporates nonlinear 'functional response' curves of the Holling or Michaelis-Menten type to describe the dependence of the resource-exploitation rate on the amount of resource. Coe...