We investigate the role of permanent and transitory shocks for firms and aggregate dynamics. We find that permanent shocks to productivity and permanent shifts in the composition of output explain at least 4/5 of firms dynamics. However, these permanent shocks are almost uncorrelated across firms, and are therefore less relevant for aggregate dynamics. Transitory shocks, on the other hand, are ...

This paper uses the short-run restrictions implied by a simple aggregate demandaggregate supply model as an aid in identifying structural shocks. Combined with the Blanchard-Quah restriction, it allows estimation of the slope of the aggregate supply curve, the variances of structural demand and supply shocks, and the extent to which structural demand and supply shocks are correlated. This paper...

Introduction 1 I. The Importance of Internal and External Shocks 4 A. External Shocks: Uncertain Terms of Trade 4 B. External Shocks: Uncertain Access to and Cost of Foreign Capital 5 C. Internal Shocks: Uncertain Agricultural Output and Domestic Policy Shocks 10 D. Life is Uncertain! So What? 11 II. The Impact of Uncertainty on Production Commodity Trade 11 III. Trade in Goods and Risk-Free Bo...

To determine the effect of economic shocks on civil conflict, the empirical approach must be tailored to the shocks’ persistence. I illustrate this point by revisiting Miguel, Satyanath, and Sergenti (2004). MSS argue that lower rainfall levels and negative rainfall shocks increase the probability of civil conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa over the 1979-1999 period. I find MSS’s approach and concl...

This paper shows that productivity shocks to the top 100 U.S. companies (as identified in Gabaix (2011)) contain systematic information. Specifically, shocks to the top 100 firms predict future shocks to geographically close firms. Intra-sector trade links are an important economic channel for the cascade effect. However, these geographic spillovers are not only restricted to firms’ explicit in...

We study the properties of cosmological shock waves identified in highresolution, N-body/hydrodynamic simulations of a ΛCDM universe and their role on thermalization of gas and acceleration of nonthermal, cosmic ray (CR) particles. External shocks form around sheets, filaments and knots of mass distribution when the gas in void regions accretes onto them. Within those nonlinear structures, inte...

BACKGROUND Several different defibrillators are currently used for cardioversion and defibrillation of cardiac arrhythmias. The efficacy of a novel pulsed biphasic (PB) waveform has not been compared to other biphasic waveforms. Accordingly, this study aims to compare the efficacy and safety of PB shocks with biphasic truncated exponential (BTE) shocks in patients undergoing cardioversion of at...

In this paper we assess the role of capital-embodied technology shocks in explaining properties of the cross section of stock returns. Existing theories seem to disagree on the sign and magnitude of the price the market demands for bearing the risk of such shocks: while a negative price is necessary to justify the value premium or the cross-sectional predictability of returns by firm characteri...