L. Fu, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Room 220, Civil/Electrical Building, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada T6G 2G7. L. R. Rilett, Department of Civil Engineering, Room 303D, CE/ TTI Tower, Texas A&M University, College Station, Tex. 77843-3136. The ability to predict the link travel times is a necessary requirement for most intelligent transportation systems...

{ Gravity models are a class of log-linear regressions that have been used in studies of traac ows between geographical zones. Stochastic parameter variations on these models, and their Bayesian analyses via stochastic simulation, are explored here in connection with the development of approaches to studying variability questions in established traac ow network equilibrium models. In addition t...

In daily operation, railway traffic always deviates from the planned schedule to a certain extent. Primary initial delays of trains may cause a whole cascade of secondary delays of other trains over the entire network. In this paper, we propose a stochastic model for delay propagation and forecasts of arrival and departure events which is applicable to all kind of public transport (not only to ...

We consider a stochastic process driven by a diffusion and jumps. We devise a technique, which is based on a discrete record of observations, for identifying the times when jumps larger than a suitably defined threshold occurred. The technique allows also jump size estimation. We prove the consistency of a nonparametric estimator of the integrated infinitesimal variance of the process continuou...

– P is the “true” or physical probability measure – Ω is the universe of possible outcomes. We use ω ∈ Ω to represent a generic outcome, typically a sample path(s) of a stochastic process(es). – the set F represents the set of possible events where an event is a subset of Ω. • There is also a filtration, {F}t≥0, that models the evolution of information through time. So for example, if it is kno...

BACKGROUND An increasing number of studies use GIS estimates of car travel times to health services, without presenting any evidence that the estimates are representative of real travel times. This investigation compared GIS estimates of travel times with the actual times reported by a sample of 475 cancer patients who had travelled by car to attend clinics at eight hospitals in the North of En...

In this paper we consider the Vehicle Routing Problem with Hard Time Windows and Stochastic Service Times (VRPHTWSST). We can describe the problem as follows. Consider a directed graph G = (V,A) where V = {0, 1, . . . , n} is the node set, and A = {(i, j) | i, j ∈ N} is the arc set. Node 0 represents a depot where a fleet of homogeneous vehicles is initially located and Vc = {1, . . . , n} is t...

Bounding the inefficiency of selfish routing has become an emerging research subject. A central result obtained in the literature is that the inefficiency of deterministic User Equilibrium (UE) is bounded and the bound is independent of network topology. This paper makes a contribution to the literature by bounding the inefficiency of the logit-based Stochastic User Equilibrium (SUE). In a stoc...

A novel path planning approach is presented to solve optimal path in stochastic, time-varying networks under priori traffic information. Most existing studies make use of dynamic programming to find optimal path. However, those methods are proved to be unable to obtain global optimal value, moreover, how to design efficient algorithms is also another challenge. This paper employs a decision the...

These papers are produced by Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge. They are circulated for discussion purposes only. Their contents should be considered preliminary and are not to be quoted without the authors' permission. The stochastic uncapacitated single allocation p-hub center problem is an extension of the deter-ministic version which aims to minimize the longest origi...