on one hand, oil is the greatest energy resource in the world and, on the other hand, because of the role of oil revenue in the economic of oil producer countries, such as iran,it is vital for these countries. so it is necessary to recognize different affective parameters on oil market for these countries. in this research, we try to forecast oil price as an important variable in world wide oil...

This paper establishes analytically what the asymptotic behavior of the DickeyFuller coefficient tests and the Dickey-Fuller t-statistic tests will be when the true data-generating process is a trigonometric function of an integrated process. Using some recently established limit theorems, it is shown that for such a data generating process, the asymptotic behavior of these unit root tests is r...

This paper shows that high-frequency, irregularly-spaced, FX data can generate non-normality, conditional heteroskedasticity, and leptokurtosis when aggregated into fixed-interval, calendar time even when these features are absent in the original D.G.P. Furthermore, we introduce a new approach to modeling these high-frequency irregularly spaced data based on the Poisson regression model. The ne...

This paper studies a panel data regression setting, where a break occurs at a unknown common date. In this paper, we establish the consistency and rate of convergence of the change point estimator. The break date can be estimated consistently both in …xed time horizon and large panels, which indicates that the structural change can be well detected even in short panels. Furthermore, the limitin...

in this paper, the behavior of saving and consumption has been considered in ramsey – cass- koopmans model’s framework. our purpose was investigation of dynamics of these variables and analysis of their response to other parameter and variable variations. so, we made lagrangian function subject to some restrictions and euler equations and other steady state path equations. and then, we have cal...

We generalise the Black-Litterman (BL) portfolio management framework to incorporate time-variation in the conditional distribution of returns in the asset allocation process. We evaluate the performance of the dynamic BL model using both standard performance ratios as well as other measures that are designed to capture tail risk in the presence of non-normally distributed asset returns. We fin...

There have been numerous attempts at the formation of regional policy groupings within Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). This paper analyses the similarities in macroeconomic policies pursued by member countries using realised correlation analysis on 26 LAC countries and observations covering the period 1970–2005. The study finds evidence of co-movement in monetary, fiscal, trade and capit...

In this paper we test for the inclusion of the bid-ask spread in the consumption CAPM, in the UK stock market over the time period of 1980-2000. Two econometric models are used; first, Fisher’s (1994) asset pricing model is estimated by GMM, and secondly, the VAR approach proposed by Campbell and Shiller is extended to include the bid-ask spread. Overall the statistical tests are unable to reje...