T   he completed MCI includes three main channels of interest rate, exchange rate and credit rate. In developing countries such as Iran, this indicator, which contains a credit channel, could be better used to illustrate the country’s monetary condition. This study has been done to calculate this index for the period of 1978–2012. For this purpose, the function of the total economy demand ...

The classical integer valued first-order autoregressive (INA- R(1)) model has been defined on the basis of Poisson innovations. This model has Poisson marginal distribution and is suitable for modeling equidispersed count data. In this paper, we introduce an modification of the INAR(1) model with geometric innovations (INARG(1)) for model- ing overdispersed count data. We discuss some structu...

This paper examines necessary and sufficient conditions for the propriety of the posterior distribution in hierarchical linear mixed effects models for a collection of improper prior distributions. In addition to the flat prior for the fixed effects, the collection includes various limiting forms of the invariant gamma distribution for the variance components, including cases considered previou...

globalization is integration of national economies in global economy and infers on increasing the flow of goods and services. in this study the consequences of globalization were studied through the analysis of level of international trade index (lit) in the caviar export equation. the required data were gathered from statistical yearbook of foreign trade, statistical yearbook of fisheries, sta...

We develop a Bayesian nonparametric autoregressive model applied to flexibly estimate general transition densities exhibiting nonlinear lag dependence. Our approach is related density regression using Dirichlet process mixtures, with the Markovian likelihood defined through conditional distribution obtained from mixture. This results in extension of mixtures-of-experts formulation. address comp...

The Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) have been known to play significant roles in promoting economic growth, employment generation foreign exchange earnings among others, of both developed developing economies. Monetary policy, on the other hand, actions strategies employed by a central bank or monetary authority control regulate money supply, interest rates, credit conditions an economy. Th...

The prime objective of this study was to examine the impact COVID-19 shock on sector returns South African Stock market. employed Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model estimated with a Pooled Mean Group estimator sample daily stock 10 Johannesburg Exchange (JSE) sectors. results indicate heterogeneous behaviour in return response shock. shows that Pandemic negatively impacted majority How...

This study investigates the impact of climate and non-climate factors on cereal production in Somalia from 1990 to 2019. The used Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modeling approach analyze effect CO2, temperature, rainfall, land under production, rural population production. employed ARDL model determine long-run short-run effects variables. results indicate that all variables negatively i...