strength and duration, that have, so far, characterized economic activity. January 31, 2001: Preliminary real GDP growth for the fourth quarter is barely above 1 percent, more than 4 percentage points below what is was only two quarters before and about 7 percentage points below its level in the third quarter of 1999. Much of the press, and some forecasters, predict that the first quarter of 20...

Policy makers and businessmen demand real-time information and short-term forecasts about bed-nights occupied and the occupancy rate in hotel establishments (the latter being the percentage ratio of the number of bed nights occupied to the number of bed-nights on offer in the same period, usually one month). So, when these forecasts are obtained using single equations time series models, implic...

The use of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPFs) enables to improve the real-time control of urban drainage systems by extending the time available to prevent critical situations such as flooding or sewer overflow [1-5]. Often, these are caused by rainfall events developing within a short period of time, and therefore, short term rainfall forecasts with lead time less than 3 hours are mos...

This paper examines the relationship between the antitrust environment and technological inventiveness in the US economy, where technological inventiveness is measured by patent activity. Although not all registered patents are commercialised into inventions, patent data provide a valuable source of information about technological efforts. Patenting is also very important as it is linked to an ...

This review offers a guided tour to PcGive 10 modules for econometrics analysis of time series (PcGive), limited dependent variable (LogitJD) and static and dynamic panel data analyses (DPD), financial econometric (GARCH) and time series (ARFIMA) modelling. Several empirical applications are reported to illustrate the package.

BACKGROUND Much of the developing world, particularly sub-Saharan Africa, exhibits high levels of morbidity and mortality associated with diarrhea, acute respiratory infection, and malaria. With the increasing awareness that the aforementioned infectious diseases impose an enormous burden on developing countries, public health programs therein could benefit from parsimonious general-purpose for...

Most empirical models of consumer choice assume that the decision-maker assesses all alternatives and information in a perfect information processing sense. The complexity of the choice environment, the ability of the individual to make complex decisions and the effect of choice context on the decision strategy, are generally not considered in statistical model development. One of the reasons f...

An important challenge in modelling the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) epidemic is to use the increasing quantity of disease surveillance data to validate estimates and forecasts. Presented is a novel model for forecasting HIV incidence by age and sex and among sentinel groups for which data are available. This approach permits a closer relationship...