BACKGROUND Decisions about the use of new technologies in health care are often based on complex economic models. Decision makers frequently make informal judgments about evidence, uncertainty, and the assumptions that underpin these models. OBJECTIVES Transparent interactive decision interrogator (TIDI) facilitates more formal critique of decision models by decision makers such as members of...

This paper provides estimators and confidence regions for minima of an econometric criterion function Q(θ). The minima form a set of parameters, ΘI , called here the identified set. In economic applications, ΘI represents a set of economic models that in population pass the set of testable restrictions embodied in Q(θ). When ΘI is a singleton, the confidence sets reduce to the conventional conf...

1 Introduction Why do we care about estimating production functions (in an IO course)? Production functions are components in many economic models; Evaluate e¢ ciency of an industry: – increasing returns, economies of scale – complementarity / substitutability between inputs – cost regulation, synergies and mergers – economics of scope – learning by doing Productivity analysis (output per index...

The difficulty of accounting for expectational effects in macro-economic models is well known. The standard procedure in dealing with this problem in the construction of large-scale macro-econometric models is to use current and lagged values as “proxies” for expected future values. An alternative procedure is to assume that expectations are rational. Although the assumption of rational expecta...

Structural economic models allow one to analyze counter-factuals when economic system change and to evaluate the well being of economic agents. A key element in such analysis is the ability to identify the primitive functions and distributions of the economic models that are employed to describe the economic phenomena under study. Recent developments in nonparametric identification of structura...

Conducti ng monetary policy is a difficult business. It's easy enough to set a policy goal such as price stability or low and stable inflation , but because monetary policy affects the economy with a lag, achieving those goals requires an ability to peer into the future. A change in the money supply or interest rates today won't affect inflation for months, or even years, down the road. Consequ...

We have been attempting to apply financial portfolio analysis techniques to the task of selecting an application-appropriate suite of security technologies from the technologies available in the marketplace. The problem structures are sufficiently similar that the intuitive guidance is encouraging. However, the analysis techniques of portfolio analysis assume precise quantitative data of a sort...

Despite standard economic models that assume stability of preferences, empirical work on insurance choice has documented a surprising lack of stability of risk preferences across domains. We hypothesize that informational differences can partly explain the observed empirical regularities, and test our hypothesis by conducting lab and field experiments with over 4,000 participants. We exogenousl...

Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting Prediction markets – markets used to forecast future events – have been used to accurately forecast the outcome of political contests, sporting events, and, occasionally, economic outcomes. This chapter summarizes the latest research on prediction markets in order to further their utilization by economic forecasters. We show that prediction markets ha...

The digitisation of content combined with a global network for delivery and an open system for sharing has seen radical changes in many industries. The economic model which has underpinned many content based industries has been based on an assumption of scarcity. With a digital, open, networked approach we are witnessing a shift to abundance of content, and subsequently new economic models are ...