In this paper we propose a new method for producing semiparametric density forecasts for daily financial returns from high-frequency intraday data. The daily return density is estimated directly from intraday observations that have been appropriately rescaled using results from the theory of unifractal processes. The method preserves information concerning both the magnitude and sign of the int...

Logistic smooth transition and Markov switching autoregressive models of a logistic transform of the monthly US unemployment rate are estimated by Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The Markov switching model is identified by constraining the first autoregression coefficient to differ across regimes. The transition variable in the LSTAR model is the lagged seasonal difference of the unemployment...

Recent empirical studies have argued that the temporal dependencies in "nancial market volatility are best characterized by long memory, or fractionally integrated, time series models. Meanwhile, little is known about the properties of the semiparametric inference procedures underlying much of this empirical evidence. The simulations reported in the present paper demonstrate that, in contrast t...

this paper estimates the determinants of inflation in iran using a linear and non- linear regression model over the period 1959-2008. in the model specification, the conventional variables (liquidity, production and exchange rate) as well as positive and negative oil revenue shocks, monetary disequilibrium, and demand gap are considered. the results show that nonlinear time series regression mo...

abstract comparison of food prices in different periods, indicates fluctuations and continually upward trend. any change in agricultural sector variables, as main food supplier, will affect food price. productivity shocks and production gap are examples of such variables. in this paper ,hodrick prescott and kalman filters are used as generators of productivity shocks and production gap series. ...

The paper examines the economic role of modelling information on the decision problem of an exporting firm under exchange rate risk and hedging. Information is described in terms of market transparency, i.e., a publicly observable signal conveys more information about the random foreign exchange rate. We analyze the interaction between market transparency and the ex ante expected utility of the...

We develop a behavioral exchange rate model with chartists and fundamentalists to study cyclical behavior in foreign exchange markets. Within our model, the market impact of fundamentalists depends on the strength of their belief in fundamental analysis. Estimation of a STAR GARCH model shows that the more the exchange rate deviates from its fundamental value, the more fundamentalists leave the...

By disaggregating price indices, it becomes apparent that the real exchange rate consists of the real exchange rate for a single good and a weighted sum of relative prices between goods. When applying a battery of panel unit root tests to this sum and its components, it is found that both the sum and the relative prices are non-stationary. This implies that PPP is invalid even if the LOP holds ...

The real exchange rate real interest rate (RERI) relationship is central to most open economy macroeconomic models. However, empirical support for the relationship, especially when cointegrationbased methods are used, is rather weak. In this paper we reinvestigate the RERI relationship using bilateral real exchange rate data spanning the period 1978 to 1997. We first clarify the logic of applyi...

We study financial fragility, exchange rate crises, and monetary policy in an open economy version of a Diamond-Dybvig model. The banking system, the exchange rate regime, and central bank credit policy are seen as parts of a mechanism intended to maximize social welfare; if the mechanism fails, banking crises and speculative attacks become possible. We compare currency boards, fixed rates, and...