This paper develops a novel and e¤ective bootstrap method for simulating asymptotic critical values for tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing among many nested models. The bootstrap, which combines elements of …xed regressor and wild bootstrap methods, is simple to use. We …rst derive the asymptotic distributions of tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing applied to foreca...

Model diagnostics and forecast evaluation are closely related tasks, with the former concerning in-sample goodness (or lack) of fit latter addressing predictive performance out-of-sample. We review ubiquitous setting in which forecasts cast form quantiles or quantile-bounded prediction intervals. distinguish unconditional calibration, corresponds to classical coverage criteria, from stronger no...

The Southeast Alaska Coastal Monitoring (SECM) project has been sampling juvenile salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) and associated environmental parameters in northern Southeast Alaska (SEAK) since 1997 to better understand effects of environmental change on salmon production. A pragmatic application of this effort is to forecast the abundance of adult salmon returns in subsequent years. Since 2004, j...

forecasting of macroeconomic variables has specific importance in economic topics. indeed, different models are invented to forecast variables to help economic policy makers in adopting appropriate monetary and fiscal policies. in this paper, the performance of integrated model of input-output (io) and neural network is investigated in forecasting final demand and total production and the resul...