In this paper, we present a design-based research of a “game of chance” task, which aims enhancing reasoning on risk management. The retrospective analysis of the data of 48 Spanish students of grade 7 (ages 12 to 14) has provided information about the evolution of the levels of reasoning on decision-making in an operationalizing risk management process. Students reasoning evolve from an initia...

“Noise” in Ratings: Not Entirely Random I investigate the informational accuracy as opposed to informational content of credit ratings over time. The study presents an empirical analysis of the classification errors. Results suggest that greater the credit risk in the economy, the higher is the error rate. Of all binary classifications tested, classification error for dichotomous class of inves...

In the last 20 years, little progress has been made with respect to assisting oncologists in treatment decision making for node-negative breast cancer patients. Great uncertainty persists in selecting those node-negative women who need adjuvant chemotherapy and those who could safely be spared this aggressive treatment. At present oncologists decide whether to prescribe chemotherapy based on co...

Intravenous antibiotic prophylaxis is routinely administered to prevent surgical site infection in spinal surgery. Adding intrawound vancomycin powder before surgical closure might further decrease infection risk. However, its use is controversial. Searching in Epistemonikos database, which is maintained by screening 30 databases, we identified six systematic reviews that considered 16 studies,...

Open pit mine design and production scheduling deals with the quest for the most profitable mining sequence over the life of a mine. The dynamics of mining ore and waste and the spatial grade uncertainty make predictions of the optimal mining sequence a challenging task. A new optimization approach to production scheduling based on the effective management of waste mining and orebody grade unce...

The incidence of hyperfibrinolysis in patients with cirrhosis is still debated. The reasons for this uncertainty probably lie in the lack of appropriate laboratory tests for its evaluation. There is a relative consensus, however, that hyperfibrinolysis can complicate the clinical course of liver cirrhosis, especially in cases of moderate to severe liver failure. Hyperfibrinolysis correlates pos...

Zbigniew Puchała, Łukasz Rudnicki, Karol Życzkowski Institute of Theoretical and Applied Informatics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Bałtycka 5, 44-100 Gliwice, Poland Institute of Physics, Jagiellonian University, ul. Reymonta 4, 30-059 Kraków, Poland Center for Theoretical Physics, Polish Academy of Sciences, al. Lotników 32/46, 02-668 Warszawa, Poland Freiburg Insitute for Advanced Studies, Alb...

This paper introduces a novel boundary integral approach of shape uncertainty quantification for the Helmholtz scattering problem in the framework of the so-called parametric method. The key idea is to form a low-dimensional spatial embedding within the family of uncertain boundary deformations via the Coarea formula. The embedding, essentially, encompasses any irregular behavior of the boundar...

We study the effect of the uncertainty in the induced microseismic event locations and origin times on the inverted fluid pressure diffusivity. We use a probabilistic physical model that directly ties fluid pressure in the subsurface during the injection to observations of induced microseismic events at the monitoring receiver array to track the propagation of uncertainty in the forward model a...