We examine the role of financial development in economic growth in the former Communist countries of Central and Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States during the first two decades since the beginning of transition. These countries, which had undeveloped financial systems under Communism, provide an interesting test of the relationship between financial development and growth...

We develop a continuous-time regime-switching model for the term structure of interest rates, in which the spot rate follows the Taylor rule, and government bonds at different maturities are priced by no-arbitrage. We allow the coefficients of the Taylor rule and the dynamics of inflation and output gap to be regime-dependent. We estimate the model using government bond yields and find that the...

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is frequently regarded as a key driver of global economic integration because it brings job opportunities, capital investment, and business experience. The current study examines the impact of foreign direct investment on Afghanistan's economic growth using time-series data from 2007 to 2019, which are collected from the World Bank and the International Monetary ...

We use a dynamic factor model to provide a semi-structural representation for 101 quarterly US macroeconomic series. We find that (i) the US economy is well described by a number of structural shocks between two and six. Focusing on the four-shock specification, we identify, using sign restrictions, two non-policy shocks, demand and supply, and two policy shocks, monetary and fiscal. We obtain ...

a r t i c l e i n f o Keywords: Asymmetry Inflation Relative price variability (RPV) U-shape JEL classification: E30 E31 E52 It is widely perceived that relative prices are more dispersed in periods of price decreases than in periods of price increases. We show that the asymmetry results from misspecifying the true, U-shaped, underlying model with a piecewise linear regression model. Ever since...

In this paper we evaluate the empirical performance of a medium–scale DSGE model (Smets andWouters 2007) when agents form expectations about forward variables by using small forecasting models. Agents learn about these simple AR and VAR forecasting models through Kalman filter estimation and they combine them either using a prediction basedweighting scheme or fixed weights. The results indicate...

this paper concentrates on investigating the effect of monetary instruments on macroeconomic variables using structural model over the period 1981- 2006. the main results of simulation show that decrease in the interest rate, increases investment but it's effect on production (gdp) is negligible. this weak effect is probably due to some factors such as, the introduction of some new project...

Spillovers have attracted wide attention in the areas of research in economics during the past decades. The reason for the interest in the topic lies in their important role in endogenous growth theory and the explanation of productivity growth. This paper investigates the spatial spillover of different types of public infrastructure on economic growth across EU-28 NUTS-II regions during 1995-2...

â â â  â â â â â  the aim of this paper is to simulate the effects of some macroeconomic policy tools on production and inflation of iran by the current worldwide financial and real crisis. the theoretical framework of the analysis is based on the so-called ‘imf/world bank integrated model’ which is the synthesis (a merger) of the basic monetary approach of the balance of payments used at t...