a medium scale structural macroeconometric model is constructed to investigate the effects of energy price liberalization on the main macroeconomic variables. the analysis is conducted under 3 different scenarios of increasing the price of energy sources to the level prevailed in the countries of the persian gulf region. these 3 scenarios are a sudden increase, a gradual increase within a 5 yea...

Abstract: Central banks have long been interested in obtaining precise estimations of money demand given the fact that the evolution of money demand plays a key role over several monetary variables. One implication of currency substitution is that the exchange rate could serve as another determinant of the demand for money. Due to the recent currency crisis in Iran, it would be important to inv...

! Average inflation below target in Sweden 1997-2011 ! Average inflation expectations (Prospera) close to target 1997-2011 Questions to be answered: ! If inflation expectations stuck at target when average inflation deviates from target, non-vertical long-run Phillips curve? ! If lower average inflation, higher average unemployment? ! If estimates of sustainable unemployment rate based on histo...

This explanation has been articulated in a number of recent papers. See, for example, Azariadis and Smith (forthcoming), Boyd and Smith (forthcoming), and Schreft and Smith (forthcoming and 1994). A consensus among economists seems to be that high rates of inflation cause " problems, " not just for some individuals, but for aggregate economic performance. There is much less agreement about what...

This article seeks to check the nonlinearity of the Phillips curve in Tunisia for the 1993–2012 period, relying on a hybrid new Keynesian Phillips curve modeled via a Logistic Smooth Transition Regression (LSTR) model with endogenous variables. We estimate this model using the nonlinear instrumental variables. The empirical results corroborate the new Keynesian assumption ofprice rigidity and s...

This paper uses a structurally estimated macroeconometric model, denoted the MC model, to evaluate inflation targeting in the United States. Various interest rate rules are tried with differing weights on inflation and output, and various optimal control problems are solved using differing weights on inflation and output targets. Price-level targeting is also considered. The results show that 1...

We consider inflation and debt dynamics under a global interest rate rule when private agents forecast using adaptive learning. Given the zero lower bound on interest rates, active interest rate rules are known to imply the existence of a second, low-inflation steady state. Under learning the economy can slip below this low-inflation steady state and be driven to an even lower inflation floor s...

developing countries, including iran, have a high degree of volatility of macroeconomic variables. fluctuations inex change rate, bank interest rate and inflation rate can create insecure environment for in vestorsin iran. hence, this study examined the impact of macroeconomic variables on the tobin’s q index for the sugar companies of tehran stock exchange (tse) during the period between1380-1...