We study the price dynamics of stocks traded in the NASDAQmarket by considering the statistical properties of an ensemble of stocks traded simultaneously. For each trading day of our database, we study the ensemble return distribution by extracting its first two central moments. According to previous results obtained for the NYSE market, we find that the second moment is a long-range correlated...

This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate. This paper develops a simple methodology to test for asset in...

This study identifies the predictors of positive earnings surprises at varying levels of earnings surprises under strong and weak business conditions (2014 and 2010, respectively). It measures the impact on surprises of a unique and diverse set of predictors such as analyst coverage and industry type which are security characteristics and sales and cash flow that emanate from financial statemen...

In this paper, we analyze and compare long-range power-law correlations of returns, absolute returns, squared returns, cubed returns and square waved returns for sixteen individual stocks from the block of energy sources of Chinese stock market and five stock indices (Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Dow Jones Industrial Average index, Nasdaq Composite Index, the Standard and...

This paper builds a venture capital index from 1987 to 1999 that consists of 12,946 rounds of venture financing with 5,643 venture-backed firms. The paper uses two innovative techniques, a re-weighting procedure and a method of moment repeat sales regression, to mitigates three problems missing data, censored data, and sample selection. We report the time series of capital flows, net asset valu...

In this paper, we derive a new application of fuzzy systems designed for a generalized autoregression conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model. In general, stock market performance is time-varying and nonlinear, and exhibits properties of clustering. The latter means simply that certain large changes tend to follow other large changes, and in general small changes tend to follow other small...

The use of intelligent systems for stock market predictions has been widely established. This paper introduces a genetic programming technique (called Multi-Expression programming) for the prediction of two stock indices. The performance is then compared with an artificial neural network trained using Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm, support vector machine, Takagi-Sugeno neuro-fuzzy model and a d...