We quantify the effect of a significant technological innovation, shale oil development, on asset prices. Using stock price changes on major news announcement days allows us to link aggregate stock price changes to shale development activity as well as other oil supply shocks. We exploit cross-sectional variation in industry portfolio returns on announcement days to construct a shale mimicking ...

Output responses to oil-price shocks not only tend to be weaker, but also to peak earlier recently. This paper builds a model that incorporates a realistic structure of US petroleum consumption and explores three possible explanations for the changes. The first is based on deregulation in the transportation sector, which has brought more competition and improved efficiency in the industry. The ...

The significant jump in world crude oil price over the past year has raised great concern over the economic impact that such a price shock may bring about on Taiwan’s economy, which has been characterized by extremely high import-oil dependence. Previous analyses have been tackling similar issue from several different angles, but it has rarely been discussed from a complete view of interactions...

Regarding the fact that each country might be a net oil seller or net buyer, and considering its large share in the whole economy, the price of this commodity as well as its volatility could affect all economies around the world.  The impact of oil price volatility on the economy is seemed to be more dominant in Iran rather than any other developed or emerging economies, especially in recent ye...

This paper investigates the common movements of commodity sectors in China as well as the economic underpinnings of the comovements. We employ a Bayesian dynamic latent factor model to disentangle the common and idiosyncratic sector-specific factors of the prices of a group of China's commodity sectors: petrochemicals, grains, energy, non-ferrous metals, oils & fats, and softs. The results indi...

The UK has to decide whether to join the other members of the EU in a monetary union. This choice depends in part on the outturns for the economy inside and outside EMU. The UK has chosen to target inflation, and this can involve some 'price level drift', whilst the ECB emphasises 'Price Stability' and would plan to reverse the drift in the price level that might be caused by external shocks su...

T he world economy has experienced a bulk of positive and negative shocks in crude oil prices and exchange rates over the years, and that global inflation has undergone some changes. Such shocks have affected the macroeconomic variables in the countries of the world and have challenged the economies of these countries, and have led them to take different measures to protect themselves agai...

We provide novel evidence on how frictions in the financing of working capital amplify and propagate the effect of economic shocks over time. We propose a test for this idea in a situation where firms must pay for inputs in advance of production, and face credit constraints and seasonal variation in profitability. Persistent input price shocks lead to stronger immediate and longer-term drops on...

The unifying theme of the conference has been that the inflationary effects associated with changes in commodity prices depend on the more fundamental shocks that drive commodity prices. Moreover, since changes in prices of oil and other commodities are relative price shocks they do not cause inflation. In contrast, central banks can cause inflation and they respond to real shocks, so it is nec...

Movements in palm oil price give important signals to various stakeholders of the industry Malaysia. Thus, understanding external and internal factors that may affect is vital players for sustainability their activities. This study investigates relative importance shocks on movement Employing a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model quarterly data from 1990 2019, findings reveal are more...