1. The population dynamics of many herbivorous insects are characterized by rapid outbreaks, during which the insects severely defoliate their host plants. These outbreaks are separated by periods of low insect density and little defoliation. In many cases, the underlying cause of these outbreaks is unknown. 2. Mechanistic models are an important tool for understanding population outbreaks, but...

Outbreaks of infectious diseases such as influenza are a significant threat to human health. Because there are different strains of influenza which can cause independent outbreaks, and influenza can affect demographic groups at different rates and times, there is a need to recognize and characterize multiple outbreaks of influenza. This paper describes a Bayesian system that uses data from emer...

In spite of the obvious global public goods nature of warnings about infectious disease outbreaks, international legal requirements for reporting outbreaks remain weak and disclosure of outbreaks depends on the self-interest of nations. Using a simple game-theoretic model, we explore the incentives of countries to invest in disease surveillance and to report outbreaks to international health au...

A large number of gastroenteritis outbreaks due to a norovirus GII/4 strain and its variants occurred during November and December 2006 in Kobe, Japan. Of the 118 outbreaks, 6 were foodborne and 112 were caused by person-to-person transmission in healthcare settings such as nursing homes and hospitals. The distribution of norovirus outbreaks in healthcare settings was skewed, particularly in th...

Scabies is an important public health problem in residential care homes. Delayed diagnosis contributes to outbreaks, which may be prolonged and difficult to control. We investigated factors influencing outbreak recognition, diagnosis and treatment, and staff experiences of outbreak control, identifying areas for intervention. We carried out a semi-structured survey of managers, affected residen...

International foodborne norovirus outbreaks can be difficult to recognize when using standard outbreak investigation methods. In a novel approach, we provide step-wise selection criteria to identify clusters of outbreaks that may involve an internationally distributed common foodborne source. After computerized linking of epidemiologic data to aligned sequences, we retrospectively identified 10...

Policy-makers now face important questions regarding the tradeoffs among different strategies for managing poliomyelitis risks after they succeed with polio eradication. To estimate the potential consequences of reintroductions of polioviruses and the resulting outbreaks, the authors developed a dynamic disease transmission model that can simulate many aspects of outbreaks for different postera...

Listeria monocytogenes, a bacterial foodborne pathogen, can cause meningitis, bacteremia, and complications during pregnancy. This report summarizes listeriosis outbreaks reported to the Foodborne Disease Outbreak Surveillance System of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention during 1998-2008. The study period includes the advent of PulseNet (a national molecular subtyping network for ou...

Efforts to prevent foodborne illness target bacterial pathogens, yet noroviruses (NoV) are suspected to be the most common cause of gastroenteritis. New molecular assays allow for better estimation of the role of NoV in foodborne illness. We analyzed 8,271 foodborne outbreaks reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention from 1991 to 2000 and additional data from 6 states. The prop...

To understand circumstances of tuberculosis transmission that strain public health resources, we systematically reviewed Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) staff reports of US outbreaks in which CDC participated during 2002-2008 that involved ≥3 culture-confirmed tuberculosis cases linked by genotype and epidemiology. Twenty-seven outbreaks, representing 398 patients, were reviewe...