Macroeconomic theories picture the economy as a phenomenon tractable by their analysis and thus manageable macroeconomic policies guided this analysis. This approach has withstood recurrent policy failures, competing several changes of paradigms, from Keynesianism to monetarism, because development economics discipline been entangled with demand policymakers receive clear prescriptions expert c...

Some Thoughts on Macroeconomic Fluctuations and the Timing of Labor Market Reform In this paper, I analyze the pros and cons of implementing structural reforms of the labor market in booms vs. recessions, in light of considerations of social efficiency, political viability, and macroeconomic fine tuning. While the optimal timing of a reform depends on the relative importance of several conflict...

Sovereign risk premia have risen sharply in several European countries, contributed to increased credit spreads in the private sector. If monetary policy cannot offset these credit spreads because it is constrained by the zero lower bound, sovereign risk threatens macroeconomic stability: private-sector beliefs of a weakening economy may become self-fulfilling. In this paper, we put forward a t...

A macroeconometric simulation study is undertaken to evaluate the impact of commodity price stabilisation (CPS) schemes for the export tree crop industry in Papua New Guinea. The findings suggest that there is a negligible level of favourable macroeconomic impacts of CPS. Contrary to the expectation, CPS adversely affects the stability of monetary and external sectors (BOP). CPS policy has fail...

We evaluate the economic usefulness of oil price forecasts by means conditional forecasting five US macroeconomic indicators. First, we forecast prices using a mixed sampling frequency framework, where are driven information available at high-frequency; and subsequently proceed with our forecasts. Overall, there is diminishing importance for inflation projections, whereas reverse holds true exp...