in this paper, a new approach is proposed in order to select an optimal membership function for inputs of wind speed prediction system. then using a fuzzy method and the stochastic characteristics of wind speed in the previous year, the wind speed modeling is performed and the wind speed for the future year will be predicted. in this proposed method, the average and the standard deviation of in...

Given time series data X1, . . . , Xn, the problem of optimal prediction of Xn+1 has been well-studied. The same is not true, however, as regards the problem of constructing a prediction interval with prespecified coverage probability for Xn+1, i.e., turning the point predictor into an interval predictor. In the past, prediction intervals have mainly been constructed for time series that obey a...

OBJECTIVE Powered robotic prostheses create a need for natural-feeling user interfaces and robust control schemes. Here, we examined the ability of a nonlinear autoregressive model to continuously map the kinematics of a transtibial prosthesis and electromyographic (EMG) activity recorded within socket to the future estimates of the prosthetic ankle angle in three transtibial amputees. APPROA...

This paper addresses the problem of constructing reliable interval predictors directly from observed data. Differently from standard predictor models, interval predictors return a prediction interval as opposed to a single prediction value. We show that, in a stationary and independent observations framework, the reliability of themodel (that is, the probability that the future systemoutput fal...

Multivariate count time series models are an important tool for analyzing and predicting the spread of infectious disease. We consider endemic-epidemic framework, a class autoregressive disease surveillance counts, replace default autoregression on counts from previous period with more flexible weighting schemes inspired by discrete-time serial interval distributions. employ three different par...

As global demand for renewable energy increases, wind has become an important source of clean energy. However, due to the instability and unpredictability energy, predicting power becomes one keys resolving power. The current point prediction model output limitations randomness in processing information. In order improve accuracy efficiency power, a multi-step interval method (VMD-TCN) is propo...

in this research, 272977 test day records collected from 659 herds during years 2001 to 2011 by the iranian animal breeding center were used. in the first section the ability of different models to predict daily milk yield from alternative milk recording was tested. the result showed that a complex model including noon milking time plus the effect of lactation curve of ali and schaeffer functio...