• Spain has all the characteristics that make it likely to be affected by climate change. Species distribution models are a useful tool assess impact of change on deciduous forests. Biogeography is an essential variable considered in this type studies. Generalized losses habitat suitability forests expected future. The approach for designing plans forest conservation. Global and abundance repre...

Recent historic observed lows in Arctic sea ice extent, together with climate model projections of additional ice reductions in the future, have fueled speculations of potential new trans-Arctic shipping routes linking the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. However, numerical studies of how projected geophysical changes in sea ice will realistically impact ship navigation are lacking. To address this...

Since the Mid-Holocene, some 5000 years ago, coral reefs in the Pacific Ocean have been vertically constrained by sea level. Contemporary sea-level rise is releasing these constraints, providing accommodation space for vertical reef expansion. Here, we show that Porites microatolls, from reef-flat environments in Palau (western Pacific Ocean), are ‘keeping up’ with contemporary sea-level rise. ...

An aging population could substantially enhance the burden of heat-related health risks in a warming climate because of their higher susceptibility to extreme heat health effects. Here, we project heat-related mortality for adults 65 years and older in Beijing China across 31 downscaled climate models and 2 representative concentration pathways (RCPs) in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. Under a sce...

Increased heat-related mortality is projected to be among the major impacts of climate change on human health, and the United States urban Northeast region is likely to be particularly vulnerable. In support of regional adaptation planning, quantitative information is needed on potential future health responses at the urban and regional scales. Here, we present future projections of heat-relate...

The importance of methane emissions from pan-Arctic lakes in the global carbon cycle has been suggested by recent studies. These studies indicated that climate change influences this methane source mainly in twoways: thewarming of lake sediments and the evolution of thermokarst lakes. Few studies have been conducted to quantify the two impacts together in a unifiedmodeling framework. Herewe ada...

The diversity of viral strategies to modulate complement activation indicates that this component of the immune system has significant antiviral potential. One example is the Kaposi's sarcoma-associated herpesvirus (KSHV) complement control protein (KCP), which inhibits progression of the complement cascade. Rhesus rhadinovirus (RRV), like KSHV, is a member of the subfamily Gammaherpesvirinae a...

Nuisance flooding corresponds to minor and frequent flood events that have significant socioeconomic and public health impacts on coastal communities. Yearly averaged local mean sea level can be used as proxy to statistically predict the impacts of sea level rise (SLR) on the frequency of nuisance floods (NFs). In this study, we use generalized linear models (GLM) and Gaussian Process (GP) mode...

The projected recovery of ozone from the effects of ozone depleting substances this century will modulate the stratospheric cooling due to CO2, thereby affecting the detection and attribution of stratospheric temperature trends. Here the impact of future ozone changes on stratospheric temperatures is quantified for three representative concentration pathways (RCPs) using simulations from the Fi...