In final form 11 May 2004 ©2004 American Meteorological Society uring the summer of 2002, drought conditions persisted over India from mid-June to mid-July following a later-than-average arrival of seasonal monsoon rain. By the end of that summer, the average summer Indian rainfall totaled 711 mm or 19% below normal. With the exception of the area near the foothills of the Himalayas in the very...

Monsoonal airflow from the tropics triggers torrential rainfall over coastal regions of East Asia in summer, bringing flooding situations into areas of growing population and industries. However, impacts of rapid seasonal warming of the shallow East China Sea ECS and its pronounced future warming upon extreme summertime rainfall have not been explored. Here we show through cloudresolving atmosp...

Subseasonal forecast skill over the broadly defined North American (NAM), West African (WAM) and Asian (AM) summer monsoon regions is investigated using three Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) at sub-monthly lead times. Extended Logistic Regression (ELR) is used to produce probabilistic forecasts of weekly and week 3–4 averages of precipitation with starts in May–Aug, over the 1999–2010 period....

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is the largest rainband in the Southern Hemisphere and provides most of the rainfall to southwest Pacific island nations. In spite of various modelling efforts, it remains uncertain how the SPCZ will respond to greenhouse warming. Using a hierarchy of climate models we show that the uncertainty of SPCZ rainfall projections in present-generation climate ...

[1] During the last decade, there have been increasing concerns over water resource drought in northern England, brought about by the 1995 Yorkshire drought with an estimated 5-month rainfall return period of 200 years. The impacts of climatic change and variability on water resource reliability, resilience, and vulnerability in this region are examined by modeling changes to weather type frequ...