the present research was planned to evaluate the skill of linear stochastic models known as arima and multiplicative seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (sarima) model in the quantitative forecasting of the standard runoff index (sri) in karkheh basin. to this end, sri was computed in monthly and seasonal time scales in 10 hydrometric stations in 1974-75 to 2012-13 period of time ...

-This paper introduced a method of decomposing non-stationary runoff time series. By wavelet decomposing, the runoff time series is decomposed into stationary time series and stochastic time series, and AR(n) model be imposed for forecasting stationary time series. By studying chaos characteristic of stochastic time series, this paper put forward a nonlinear chaos dynamics-forecasting model to ...

Researchers introduce in this paper, an efficient fuzzy time series forecasting model based on fuzzy clustering to handle forecasting problems and improving forecasting accuracy. Each value (observation) is represented by a fuzzy set. The transition between consecutive values is taken into account in order to model the time series data. Proposed model employed eight main steps in time-invariant...

Forecasting of petroleum production time series is a key task underlying scheduling of oil refinery production. In turn, forecasting requires analysing whether time series exhibits chaotic behavior. In this paper we consider chaos analysis based forecasting of time series of gasoline and diesel production. Chaos analysis is based on Lyapunov exponents and includes determination of optimal value...

Fuzzy time series forecasting methods has got more and more attention in recent years since they have a good capability of forecasting real-world time series which contains uncertainty. There have been various fuzzy time series forecasting methods in the literature. On the other hand, just a few ones have been proposed to forecast seasonal time series. When a seasonal time series is forecasted,...