Financial returns exhibit common behavior described at best by factor models, but also fat tails, which may be captured by α-stable distributions. This paper concentrates on estimating factor models with multivariate α-stable distributed and independent factors and idiosyncratic noises under the assumption of time constant distribution (static factor models) or time-varying conditional distribu...

Volatility is a key parameter used in many financial applications, from derivatives valuation to asset management and risk management. Volatility measures the size of the errors made in modeling returns and other financial variables. It was discovered that, for vast classes of models, the average size of volatility is not constant but changes with time and is predictable. Autoregressive conditi...

A Skewed Student-t Realised DCC copula model using Realised Volatility GARCH marginal functions is developed within a Bayesian framework for the purpose of forecasting portfolio Value at Risk and Conditional Value at Risk. The use of copulas is implemented so that the marginal distributions can be separated from the dependence structure to produce tail forecasts. This is compared to using tradi...

We test the importance of multivariate information for modelling and forecasting inflation’s conditional mean and variance. In the literature, the existence of inflation’s conditional heteroskedasticity has been debated for years, as it seemed to appear only in some datasets and for some lag lengths. This phenomenon might be due to the fact that inflation depends on a linear combination of econ...

We propose a new model for volatility forecasting which combines the Generalized Dynamic Factor Model (GDFM) and the GARCH model. The GDFM, applied to a large number of series, captures the multivariate information and disentangles the common and the idiosyncratic part of each series of returns. In this financial analysis, both these components are modeled as a GARCH. We compare GDFM+GARCH and ...

A spatiotemporal approach is proposed for modeling risk spillovers using time-varying proximity matrices based on observable financial networks and a new bilateral Multivariate GARCH specification introduced. The covariance stationarity identification of the model studied, developing quasi-maximum-likelihood estimator analysing its consistency asymptotic normality. Further, it shown how to isol...

modeling dependence structure in financial economics is of paramount importance when estimating portfolio’s value at risk, since risk of an asset in addition to its own behavior is also dependent on the behavior of other assets in the portfolio. application of joint distribution copula is one of the methods for incorporation dependence at lower and upper tail of returns’ distribution in financi...

This paper introduces the scalar DCC-HEAVY and DECO-HEAVY models for conditional variances correlations of daily returns based on measures realized built from intraday data. Formulas multi-step forecasts are provided. Asymmetric versions developed. An empirical study shows that in terms HEAVY outperform BEKK-HEAVY model covariances BEKK, DCC, DECO multivariate GARCH exclusively

The question which multivariate GARCH models in the vec form are representable in the BEKK form is addressed. Using results from linear algebra, it is established that all vec models not representable in the simplest BEKK form contain matrices as parameters which map the vectorised positive semi-definite matrices into a strict subset of themselves. Moreover, a general result from linear algebra...