Available online 26 November 2010 This paper estimates the Heckscher–Ohlin model with annual US data from 1949 to 2006 for outputs of manufactures and services with inputs of fixed capital assets and the labor force. Difference equation and error correction regressions provide estimated coefficients for the comparative static system. Tariffs on manufactures primarily raise the capital return in...

Vector autoregressions are widely used in macroeconomic forecasting since they became known in the 1970s. Extensions including vector error correction models, co-integration and dynamic factor models are all rooted in the framework of vector autoregression. The three important extensions are demonstrated to have formal equivalence between each other. Above all, they all emphasize the importance...

This article compares the accuracy of vector autoregressive (VAR), restricted vector autoregressive (RVAR), Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR), vector error correction (VEC) and Bayesian vector error correction (BVEC) models in forecasting the exchange rates for ve Central and Eastern European currencies (Czech Koruna, Hungarian Forint, Polish Zloty, Slovak Koruna and Slovenian Tolar) agains...

In Kohler (2002) we analyse coalition formation in monetary policy coordination games between n countries. We find that positive spillovers of the coalition formation process and the resulting free-rider problem limit the stable coalition size: since the coalition members are bound by the union’s discipline, an outsider can successfully export inflation without fearing that the insiders will tr...

Building on previous literature, we assess when foreign aid is effective in fighting terrorism using quantile regressions on a panel of 78 developing countries for the period 1984-2008. Bilteral, multilateral and total aid indicators are used whereas terrorism includes: domestic, transnational, unclear and total terrorism dynamics. We consistently establish that foreign aid (bilateral, multilat...

This paper develops a Ricardian model with money to study North-South trade that is mediated by the currency of the North. The model shows that an increase in the supply of Northern money results in inflation being “exported” to the South. The increase in the supply of Northern money also has real effects: (1) it transfers real resources from the South to the North, lowers the wage rate in the ...

We assess the behavior of real effective exchange rates (REERs) of members of the CEMAC zone with respect to their long-term equilibrium paths. A reduced form of the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate (FEER) model is estimated and associated misalignments are derived for the period 1980 to 2009. Our findings suggest that for majority of countries, macroeconomic fundamentals have the expected...

Advanced statistical techniques are used to analyze Hong Kong output dynamics. Hong Kong, Japan and the U.S. are found to share some common long-term and short-term cyclical variations. While the Hong Kong economy is susceptible to external shocks and Granger-caused by the other two economies, local factors account for a large proportion of output growth variability and are mainly responsible f...