A calibrated New Keynesian model of the euro area is used to evaluate stabilization properties alternative monetary policy strategies when natural rate interest low (“new normal”) and probability reaching effective lower bound (ELB) non-negligible. Price level targeting most strategy in terms stabilizing inflation output reducing duration frequency ELB episodes. Temporary price also mitigating ...

<p style='text-indent:20px;'>This is a concise introduction to stochastic optimal control theory. We assume that the readers have basic knowledge of real analysis, functional elementary probability, ordinary differential equations and partial equations. will present following topics: (ⅰ) A brief presentation relevant results on analysis; (ⅱ) Formulation problems; (ⅲ) Variational method Po...

The majority of distinct sensory and motor events occur as temporally ordered sequences with rich probabilistic structure. Sequences can be characterized by the probability of transitioning from the current state to upcoming states (forward probability), as well as the probability of having transitioned to the current state from previous states (backward probability). Despite the prevalence of ...

It is challenging to transliterate named entities across languages. It is even more challenging to backward transliterate the transliterated term into its original form. This paper addresses the problem of backward translating person name from Chinese to its English counterpart. We propose a statistical backward transliteration method. Our method uses English sub-syllable and Chinese syllable a...

We study the polarized lepton pair forward–backward asymmetries inB → K∗l+l− decay using the most general, model independent form of the effective Hamiltonian. We present the general expression for nine double–polarization forward–backward asymmetries. It is shown that, the study of the forward–backward asymmetries of the doubly–polarized lepton pair is a very useful tool for establishing new p...

Recurrent event processes with marker measurements are mostly and largely studied with forward time models starting from an initial event. Interestingly, the processes could exhibit important terminal behavior during a time period before occurrence of the failure event. A natural and direct way to study recurrent events prior to a failure event is to align the processes using the failure event ...

In this paper we prove that the well-known correspondence between the forward-backward algorithm for hidden Markov models (HMMs) and belief propagation (BP) applied to HMMs can be generalized to one between BP for junction trees and the generalized inside-outside probability computation for probabilistic logic programs applied to junction trees.

Climate prediction experiences various input uncertainties such as initial condition errors (predictability of the first kind), boundary condition (or model parameter) errors (predictability of the second kind), and combined errors (predictability of the third kind). Quantification of model predictability due to input uncertainties is a key issue leading to successful climate prediction. The fi...