We study the comovement of international business cycles in a time-series clustering model with regime switching. extend framework Hamilton and Owyang (2012) to include time-varying transition probabilities determine what drives simultaneous cycle turning points. find four groups, or “clusters,” countries that experience idiosyncratic recessions relative global cycle. In addition, we primary in...

Using a Bayesian threshold vector autoregression model for the US economy, this paper tests whether nonlinear dynamics can arise from endogenous interactions between traditional business cycles, depicted by investment decisions, profitability levels and aggregate demand levels, financial conditions, credit market thus considering that latter are important sources of instability possible propaga...