In this paper, we investigate how the seemingly chaotic behavior of stock markets could be well represented using neural network, TS fuzzy system and hierarchical TS fuzzy techniques. To demonstrate the different techniques, we considered Nasdaq−100 index of Nasdaq Stock Market and the S&P CNX NIFTY stock index. We analyzed 7 year’s Nasdaq 100 main index values and 4 year’s NIFTY index values. ...

According to the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), a stock’s return is indifferent to a given trading day. But the day of the week effect phenomenon produces a different return for each day in the week. This is an abnormal return which can affect investors in deciding an investment strategy and portfolio management. This study examines the day of the week effect on stock market returns and the...

OBJECTIVE This study aims to discuss the correlation between daily reported H7N9 cases and stock price indices in China. METHODS Information on daily reported H7N9 cases and stock market sectors indices between February 19, 2013 and March 31, 2014 were collected. A distributed lag non-linear model was used to describe the variation trend for the stock indices. RESULTS The daily reported num...

In order to forecast the stock market more accurately, according to the dynamic property for the stock market, propose the real time modeling forecast via dynamic recurrent neural network and use GA to study online, then it improves the network performance and better describes the dynamic characteristic of stock market. By forecasting Shanghai negotiable securities index, it shows better validi...

Alternative strategies for predicting stock market volatility are examined. In out-of-sample forecasting experiments implied-volatility information, derived from contemporaneously observed option prices or history-based volatility predictors, such as GARCH models, are investigated, to determine if they are more appropriate for predicting future return volatility. Employing German DAX-index retu...

This paper uses the smooth transition regression (STR) model to study the nonlinear relation between the consumer price index (CPI) and the composite index of Shanghai Stock Market in China from 1999 to 2011. The results show that there exists one way Granger causality relation from CPI to stock market in China; the internal relation between the CPI and stock market’s composite index appears as...

In the absence of market frictions, the cost of carry model of stock index futures pricing predicts that returns on the underlying stock index and the associated stock index futures contract will be perfectly contemporaneously correlated. Evidence suggests, however, that this prediction is violated with clear evidence that the stock index futures market leads the stock market. We argue that tra...

The finite sample properties of the Fourier estimator of integrated volatility under market microstructure noise are studied. Analytic expressions for the bias and the mean squared error of the contaminated estimator are derived. These formulae can be practically used to design optimal MSE-based estimators, which are very robust and efficient in the presence of noise. Moreover an empirical anal...