We consider error propagation near an unstable equilibrium state (classified as an unstable focus) for spatially uncorrelated and correlated finite-amplitude initial perturbations using short(up to several weeks) and intermediate (up to two months) range forecast ensembles produced by a barotropic regional ocean model. An ensemble of initial perturbations is generated by the Latin Hypercube des...

In recent studies it has been shown that temporal predictability of expected events alters processing in perception and action. Yet, the neural mechanism(s) by which temporal predictability biases this processing is to date little understood. Therefore, in the present fMRI study we investigated how temporal predictability affects neural processing in visual cortical areas. For this, thirty-four...

With the growing popularity of location-based social networks, vast amount of user check-in histories have been accumulated. Based on such historical data, predicting a user’s next check-in place is of much interest recently. There is, however, little study on the limit of predictability of this task and its correlation with users’ demographics. These studies can give deeper insight to the pred...

The dynamics and predictability of Stommel's (1961) box model of the thermohaline circulation is studied. This nonlinear model with idealized geometry of the North Atlantic is solved exactly. A phase space analysis of the model reveals that the optimal perturbation a ecting long-term climate variability is provided by high latitude haline forcing in the Atlantic ocean, although this perturbatio...

This thesis is concerned with the design and implementation of single-processor embedded systems which have strict timing constraints. The focus of the work is on the development of systems which are based on the factors that are involved in making the real-time systems unpredictable. Among various other predictability hampering factors, the problem of shared resource access was the main focus ...

In the following lectures we shall develop and explore a general theoretical framework derived from information theory to study practical dynamical prediction from the viewpoint of analyzing the time flow of uncertainty. Here we review the practical aspects of this problem. There are two important dynamical systems which have convincingly demonstrated practical predictability. The first is the ...