We study the relation between the stability of a competitive equilibrium (CE) and the price adjustment mechanism used to attain that equilibrium point. Using two specific examples, a three-commodity exchange economy with a unique competitive equilibrium (Scarf's global instability example) and a two-commodity, two-trader type exchange economy with multiple competitive equilibria, we show that t...

The positive response of prices to an increase in interest rates or contractionary monetary policy has been documented by several empirical studies.2 According to monetarist as well as IS-LM models, an increase in interest rates or contractionary monetary policy reduces aggregate demand leading to a decrease in the price level. As a result, this positive response of prices to positive interest ...

a r t i c l e i n f o JEL classification: C13 C32 G14 Keywords: Futures price Spot price Chinese commodity market Frequency domain approach Garbade–Silber Model This paper presents the causal relationships between futures and spot prices of six metal and agriculture commodities in Chinese commodity market, using GC test, frequency domain approach proposed by Brietung and Candelon (2006) and Gar...

sharp increase in oil price and the volatility in recent decades have attracted most researchers towards the field of energy. it seems not only the direct oil price, but also the uncertainty caused by the oil price volatility affect the raw oil supply. in this research the effect of oil price volatility on oil supply has been estimated using monthly time series data from january 1980 to septemb...

B etween 1986 and 1998, the price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil remained quite stable, fluctuating between $16 and $42 constant 2011-U.S. dollars, with the exception of a brief spike in 1990 at the time of the first Gulf War. In December 1998, the barrel of WTI had reached a low point of $17. Almost 10 years later, in July 2008, the same barrel cost $134. By March 2009, the p...

Forecasts of economic time series are often evaluated according to their accuracy as measured by either quantitativeprecision or qualitative reliability. We argue that consumers purchase forecasts for the potentialutility gains from utilizing them, not for theiraccuracy. Using Monte Carlo techniques to incorporate the temporal heteroskedasticity inherent in asset returns,the expected utility of...

vi 1. Motivation and Introduction 1 2. Overview of the Analytical Framework 3 3. Data and Methodology 6

Commodity prices are important both as a source of shocks and for the propagation of shocks originating elsewhere in the economy. Many vector autoregression (VAR) studies estimate a gradual response of commodity prices to monetary policy shocks. Exploiting information in high-frequency financial market data, and using the methods of Rigobon and Sack (2004) I find that a 10 basis point surprise ...

By buying cheap and selling dear, risk-neutral commodity speculators can smooth commodity prices and induce serial dependence in price even when none would exist under a simple process of supply and demand. Commodity prices are variable and strongly positively correlated from one year to the next. The variability is often explained by supply factors, and the autocorrelation by the activities of...

Important agricultural commodity prices more than tripled from prices observed in 2005 and 2006 to those observed in the spring and summer of 2008. Prices subsequently fell precipitously so that by early November 2008 (and continuing in the subsequent few months), the near-term futures prices of corn, wheat, and soybeans stood about 50–70% higher than before the price run-up began.1 The huge pe...